| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 2.5% | 2.5% to 2.6% | 2.6% | 2.6% |
Highlights
JAPAN SEPT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2.6% (AUG 2.6%); MEDIAN FORECAST 2.5% (RANGE: 2.5% TO 2.6%)
JAPAN SEPT UNEMPLOYED UP 110,000 Y/Y AT 1.84 MLN (+70,000 IN AUG); 2ND STRAIGHT RISE
JAPAN SEPT EMPLOYMENT UP 490,000 Y/Y AT 68.63 MILLION FOR 38TH STRAIGHT Y/Y GAIN (AUG +200,000)
JAPAN SEPT UNEMPLOYED UP 110,000 Y/Y AT 1.84 MLN (+70,000 IN AUG); 2ND STRAIGHT RISE
JAPAN SEPT EMPLOYMENT UP 490,000 Y/Y AT 68.63 MILLION FOR 38TH STRAIGHT Y/Y GAIN (AUG +200,000)
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 38th straight rise on year in September amid lingering shortages of construction workers, truck drivers and system engineers among many other categories.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is forecast to remain low and stable at 2.5% after what is deemed to be a temporary surge in job cuts and retirements pushed it up to 2.6% in August and hitting a more than five-year low of 2.3% in July. The jobless rate moved in a tight 2.4% to 2.5% range in the previous six months. The 2.3% rate in July is the lowest since 2.2% recorded in December 2019 in the early phase of the pandemic.
The government continues to describe employment conditions as"showing signs of improvement” in its latest monthly economic report (unchanged since upgrading its view in June 2023). Wage growth has lagged behind sticky inflation that is now easing to just below 3%. Real wages posted the eighth straight year-on-year drop in August, down 1.7%, after sliding 0.2% in July while total nominal wages rose a modest 1.3% after jumping 3.4% in the prior month (base wage gains have been more stable at around 2.0%).
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is forecast to remain low and stable at 2.5% after what is deemed to be a temporary surge in job cuts and retirements pushed it up to 2.6% in August and hitting a more than five-year low of 2.3% in July. The jobless rate moved in a tight 2.4% to 2.5% range in the previous six months. The 2.3% rate in July is the lowest since 2.2% recorded in December 2019 in the early phase of the pandemic.
The government continues to describe employment conditions as"showing signs of improvement” in its latest monthly economic report (unchanged since upgrading its view in June 2023). Wage growth has lagged behind sticky inflation that is now easing to just below 3%. Real wages posted the eighth straight year-on-year drop in August, down 1.7%, after sliding 0.2% in July while total nominal wages rose a modest 1.3% after jumping 3.4% in the prior month (base wage gains have been more stable at around 2.0%).
Definition
The Unemployment Rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate is part of the Labour Force Survey which also includes employment data.
Description
The unemployment rate and employment change are carefully monitored. The employment data show the number employment along with the change in employment for the previous year. Monthly changes in employment also help clarify whether businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income earning workers and greater consumption. Increased spending is a positive for consumer oriented economic growth, something that has lagged in Japan.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
