| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 2.4% | 2.3% to 2.4% | 2.6% | 2.3% |
Highlights
JAPAN AUG S/A UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2.6% (OVER 5-YEAR LOW OF 2.3% IN JULY, 2.5% IN PREVIOUS 4 MONTHS); MEDIAN FORECAST 2.4% (RANGE: 2.3% TO 2.4%)
JAPAN AUG JOBS: SURGE IN JOB CUTS/RETIREMENTS (+19.4% M/M), NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO QUIT FOR OTHER OPENINGS (+13.2%) PUSHES UP JOBLESS RATE BY 0.3 POINT
JAPAN AUG EMPLOYMENT UP 200,000 Y/Y AT 68.35 MILLION FOR 37TH STRAIGHT Y/Y GAIN (JULY +550,000)
JAPAN AUG UNEMPLOYED UP 70,000 Y/Y AT 1.82 MLN (-190,000 IN JULY); FIRST RISE IN 13 MONTHS
JAPAN AUG EMPLOYMENT Y/Y RISE LED BY OTHER SERVICES, MEDICAL/WELFARE, EDUCATION; BIG DROPS CONTINUE IN WHOLESALE/RETAIL, MANUFACTURING
JAPAN AUG JOBS: SURGE IN JOB CUTS/RETIREMENTS (+19.4% M/M), NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO QUIT FOR OTHER OPENINGS (+13.2%) PUSHES UP JOBLESS RATE BY 0.3 POINT
JAPAN AUG EMPLOYMENT UP 200,000 Y/Y AT 68.35 MILLION FOR 37TH STRAIGHT Y/Y GAIN (JULY +550,000)
JAPAN AUG UNEMPLOYED UP 70,000 Y/Y AT 1.82 MLN (-190,000 IN JULY); FIRST RISE IN 13 MONTHS
JAPAN AUG EMPLOYMENT Y/Y RISE LED BY OTHER SERVICES, MEDICAL/WELFARE, EDUCATION; BIG DROPS CONTINUE IN WHOLESALE/RETAIL, MANUFACTURING
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese payrolls are expected to post their 37th straight rise on year in August amid lingering shortages of construction workers, truck drivers and system engineers among many other categories.
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is forecast to remain low and stable at 2.4% after hitting a more than five-year low of 2.3% in July and having stayed in a tight 2.4% to 2.5% range in the previous six months. The 2.3% rate in July is the lowest since 2.2% recorded in December 2019 in the early phase of the pandemic.
The government continues to describe employment conditions as"showing signs of improvement” in its latest monthly economic report. Wage growth has lagged behind sticky inflation that is now easing from above 3%. Real wages edged up 0.5% on year in July after falling in the previous six months while total nominal wages jumped a preliminary 4.1% (base wages were up a slower 2.5%).
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate is forecast to remain low and stable at 2.4% after hitting a more than five-year low of 2.3% in July and having stayed in a tight 2.4% to 2.5% range in the previous six months. The 2.3% rate in July is the lowest since 2.2% recorded in December 2019 in the early phase of the pandemic.
The government continues to describe employment conditions as"showing signs of improvement” in its latest monthly economic report. Wage growth has lagged behind sticky inflation that is now easing from above 3%. Real wages edged up 0.5% on year in July after falling in the previous six months while total nominal wages jumped a preliminary 4.1% (base wages were up a slower 2.5%).
Definition
The Unemployment Rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate is part of the Labour Force Survey which also includes employment data.
Description
The unemployment rate and employment change are carefully monitored. The employment data show the number employment along with the change in employment for the previous year. Monthly changes in employment also help clarify whether businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income earning workers and greater consumption. Increased spending is a positive for consumer oriented economic growth, something that has lagged in Japan.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
