| Actual | Previous | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.64% | 0.37% | ||
| Year over Year | 6.5% | 5.2% | 5.0% | 4.7% to 5.5% |
Highlights
Chinese industrial production rose 6.5 percent on the year in September, accelerating from growth of 5.2 percent in August and well above the consensus forecast of 5.0 percent. In month-over-month terms, industrial production rose 0.64 percent in September after an increase of 0.37 percent in August.
Within the industrial sector, manufacturing output rose 6.8 percent on the year in September, also picking up from an increase of 5.7 percent in August. Utilities output and mining output rose 2.0 percent and 5.8 percent on the year respectively, after previous increases of 2.4 percent and 5.1 percent respectively.
In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy"maintained a stable momentum of progress". Although officials refrained from explicitly referring to trade tensions with the United States, they noted that"the economy still faces multiple risks and challenges, with increasing external instability and uncertainty". Officials reiterated their commitment to"more proactive macroeconomic policies" but provided no specific guidance about whether changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were mixed relative to consensus forecasts. The China's RPI and RPI-P rose from minus 14 and minus 10 to minus 2 and plus 7 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in close to consensus forecasts.
Within the industrial sector, manufacturing output rose 6.8 percent on the year in September, also picking up from an increase of 5.7 percent in August. Utilities output and mining output rose 2.0 percent and 5.8 percent on the year respectively, after previous increases of 2.4 percent and 5.1 percent respectively.
In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy"maintained a stable momentum of progress". Although officials refrained from explicitly referring to trade tensions with the United States, they noted that"the economy still faces multiple risks and challenges, with increasing external instability and uncertainty". Officials reiterated their commitment to"more proactive macroeconomic policies" but provided no specific guidance about whether changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were mixed relative to consensus forecasts. The China's RPI and RPI-P rose from minus 14 and minus 10 to minus 2 and plus 7 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in close to consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Growth in industrial production is seen declining to 5.0 percent on year in September versus 5.2 percent in August.
Definition
Industrial production measures the change in the total inflation adjusted value of output produced by manufacturers, mines and utilities. Data are compared with the same month a year earlier.
Description
Chinese data can have a broad impact on the currency markets due to China's dominant influence on the global economy and investor sentiment. It's a leading indicator of economic health. Production is the dominant driver of the economy and reacts quickly to ups and downs in the business cycle. No data are published in February for January.
The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.
The industrial growth rate is used to reflect a certain period of increase or decrease in volume of industrial production indicators. The indicator can be used to estimate the short term trend of the industrial economy, to judge the extent of the economic boom and also to be an important reference and basis for the formulation and adjustment of economic policies.
