ActualPreviousConsensusConsensus Range
Month over Month-0.18%0.17%
Year over Year3.0%3.4%3.0%2.9% to 3.2%

Highlights

Chinese retail sales rose 3.0 percent on the year in September, slowing from growth of 3.4 percent in August and just above the consensus forecast of 2.9 percent. In month-over-month terms, retail sales fell 0.18 percent in September after advancing 0.17 percent in August.

In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy"maintained a stable momentum of progress". Although officials refrained from explicitly referring to trade tensions with the United States, they noted that"the economy still faces multiple risks and challenges, with increasing external instability and uncertainty". Officials reiterated their commitment to"more proactive macroeconomic policies" but provided no specific guidance about whether changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.

Data published today were mixed relative to consensus forecasts. The China's RPI and RPI-P rose from minus 14 and minus 10 to minus 2 and plus 7 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in close to consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The consensus sees sales growth from a year ago down to 3.0 percent in September versus 3.4 percent in August.

Definition

Retail Sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. China's retail sales are reported monthly. The critical value is the change from the same month in the previous year.

Description

Retail sales tend to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, the government is trying to stimulate consumer spending to give the economy more balance. To this end, the government put into place a basket of stimulus measures, including government subsidies and tax breaks for home appliances and cars, to expand consumption to sustain the economic growth, which was slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.
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