ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Quarter over Quarter0.8%0.7% to 0.9%1.1%1.1%
Year over Year4.7%4.5% to 4.9%4.8%5.2%

Highlights

China's GDP rose 1.1 percent on the quarter in the three months to September, as it did in the three months to June, with year-over-year growth slowing from 5.2 percent to 4.8 percent. Monthly activity data also published today showed solid growth in industrial production and retail sales in September but weak investment and house prices.

In their statement accompanying today's data, officials characterised the data as showing the economy"maintained a stable momentum of progress". Although officials refrained from explicitly referring to trade tensions with the United States, they noted that"the economy still faces multiple risks and challenges, with increasing external instability and uncertainty". Officials reiterated their commitment to"more proactive macroeconomic policies" but provided no specific guidance about whether changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.

Data published today were mixed relative to consensus forecasts. The China's RPI and RPI-P rose from minus 14 and minus 10 to minus 2 and plus 7 respectively, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in close to consensus forecasts.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Growth seen at 0.8 percent on the quarter and 4.7 percent on year for Q3 versus 1.1 percent and 5.2 percent in Q2. Lots of interest in this number as most indicators slowed in the summer after a stronger start to the year.

Definition

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) refers to the final products at market prices produced by all resident units in a country (or a region) during a certain period of time. GDP is the core indicator of the national accounts, and also an important indicator to measure the economic conditions and the level of development of a country or region. GDP is calculated from three approaches -- production, income and expenditure -- which reflect gross domestic product and its composition from different angles.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

The data are compiled by NBS and the People's Bank of China (PBoC). Estimates for non-financial corporations, financial corporations, general government, household and the rest of the world sectors are published. The production accounts, distribution and use of income account, and capital account data are compiled by NBS. NBS also develops the financial account by rearranging financial transactions data in the flow of funds accounts compiled by PBoC. There are no breakdowns of government consumption expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, change in inventories and net exports. Household consumption expenditures are broken down into urban and rural. The income components of GDP are only published in the input-output tables. NBS uses the Chinese Industrial Classification of the National Economy.
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