| Actual | Previous | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | -0.3% | -0.2% | ||
| Year over Year | 1.2% | 1.6% | 1.6% | 1.5% to 1.7% |
| HICP - M/M | -0.2% | 1.3% | ||
| HICP - Y/Y | 1.3% | 1.8% |
Highlights
The monthly HICP fell 0.2 percent on the month, down from September's 1.3 percent. At 1.3 percent, the annual rate down from 1.8 percent in September, is below the ECB's 2 percent target.
October's annual CPI rate slowdown was mainly due the decline in prices of regulated energy products (from 13.9 percent to minus 0.8 percent), unprocessed food (from 4.8 percent to 1.9 percent) and transport (from 2.4 to 2.0 percent). This offset the rise in the prices of recreation and personal care (from 3.1 percent to 3.3 percent).
Core inflation held steady at 2.0 percent in October. The prices of groceries rose 0.2 percent on the month and 2.3 percent on the year, down from 3.1 percent in September.
This latest update puts the RPI at minus 14 and RPI-P at 0, meaning that the real economy is still performing within market expectations.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Italy like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies. The core CPI, which excludes fresh food, is usually the preferred indicator of short-term inflation pressures.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.