Retail turnover in Germany showed modest growth in September 2025, suggesting a cautious improvement in consumer spending after the contraction recorded in August. Real turnover increased by 0.2 percent compared with the previous month and the same month in 2024, indicating that demand remained stable once price effects were removed. August data were revised to show a sharper decline of 0.5 percent, suggesting weaker mid-year momentum, possibly linked to household caution in response to inflation and wider economic uncertainty.

Food retail performed slightly better, with a 0.3 percent monthly increase, supported by essential consumption patterns. Annual nominal growth of 2.9 percent in this segment reflects continued price pressure. Non-food retail experienced a 0.6 percent monthly decline, which may indicate restrained discretionary spending.

However, annual figures show marginal real improvement, suggesting gradual recovery. Internet and mail-order retail continued to expand, rising 0.4 percent real month-over-month and 3.7 percent year-over-year, driven by convenience preferences and the digital shopping shift.

Overall, the latest updates suggest stabilisation rather than acceleration, with essential goods and online channels providing resilience while non-essential retail remains sensitive to economic conditions.

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data are compiled from about 27,000 retail businesses and are reported in both nominal and volume terms. Autos are excluded. A very limited breakdown of subsector performance is available in the initial report which is itself subject to sometimes sizeable revision but much greater detail is provided in the following month's release.

With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Retail sales are a measure of consumer well-being. The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps auto sales are especially strong or apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report. However, by excluding the services sector, changes in retail sales data can differ significantly from those in total household spending.