The UK's producer price data for September 2025 suggest a modest build-up in cost pressures across the production sector, signalling a gradual firming of inflationary momentum. Producer input prices the costs faced by manufacturers for materials and fuels rose by 0.8 percent over the year, accelerating from 0.2 percent in August. This indicates that supply-side costs are beginning to climb again, although the slight monthly fall of 0.1 percent points to short-term stabilisation.

At the factory gate, producer output prices rose by 3.4 percent annually, up from 3.1 percent in August, reflecting that firms are passing higher costs on to customers. On a monthly basis, output prices showed no movement, suggesting temporary relief in consumer-facing price pressures. Meanwhile, service producers experienced more notable price increases, with annual growth rising to 2.1 percent in the third quarter from 1.7 percent in the second quarter , and a 0.9 percent increase quarter-over-quarter, signalling stronger pricing power in the service economy.

Taken together, these figures point to a steady re-emergence of upstream inflation, particularly in services, which may sustain broader price pressures in the months ahead despite some easing in monthly input costs.

The Producer Price Index (PPI) measures the prices of goods bought and sold by manufacturers. The input price index measure the prices of materials and fuels purchased by manufacturers for processing. These are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day running. The output price index captures prices charged by manufacturers as they pass through the factory gate and excludes any VAT or similar deductible tax. Both measures may be seen as leading indicators of consumer price index (CPI) inflation although the short-term correlation is only very weak.

The PPI measures prices at the producer level before they are passed along to consumers. Since the producer price index measures prices of consumer goods and capital equipment, a portion of the inflation at the producer level gets passed through to the consumer price index (CPI). By tracking price pressures in the pipeline, investors can anticipate inflationary consequences in coming months. A producer's price is the amount received by a producer from the purchaser of a unit of goods or services produced as output less any value added tax (VAT) or similar deductible tax, invoiced to the purchaser. It excludes any transportation charges invoiced separately by the producer.

The PPI provides a key measure of inflation alongside the consumer price indexes and GDP deflators. The output price indexes measure change in manufacturer' goods prices produced and often are referred to as factory gate prices. Input prices are not limited to just those materials used in the final product, but also include what is required by the company in its normal day-to-day operations.

The PPI is considered a precursor of both consumer price inflation and profits. If the prices paid to manufacturers increase, businesses are faced with either charging higher prices or taking a cut in profits. The ability to pass along price increases depends on the strength and competitiveness of the marketplace.

The bond market rallies when the PPI decreases or posts only small increases, but bond prices fall when the PPI posts larger-than-expected gains. The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.