ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Index49.549.5 to 49.549.850.7

Highlights

Manufacturing activity declined from August's high of 50.7 to 49.8, 0.3 points more than both the flash estimate and the consensus. The final PMI suggests that the manufacturing industry is contracting. Despite this, the manufacturing output for September is 50.9, down from August's 52.5, suggesting slower output growth.

The best-performing countries were the Netherlands (53.7), Greece (52.0), Ireland (51.8), and Spain (51.5), where growth was at least positive. Germany (49.5), Italy (49.0), France (48.2), and Austria (47.6) all saw contractions.

Factory operations worsened, reversing August's improvement. This decline was largely driven by a decrease in new orders and increased job loss. However, business optimism remains relatively high that the coming 12 months will improve. Still, business expectations were at their lowest since April. Prices fell with both input costs and output charges falling slightly.

Today's update puts the Eurozone RPI at 17 and the RPI-P at 21. Overall, economic activity in general is moderately outperforming market expectations.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The consensus sees the index unrevised from the flash at 49.5 and down from 50.7 in August.

Definition

The Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) provides an estimate of manufacturing business activity for the preceding month by using information obtained from a representative sector survey incorporating around 3,000 companies. Results are synthesised into a single index which can range between zero and 100. A reading above (below) 50 signals rising (falling) activity versus the previous month and the closer to 100 (zero) the faster is activity growing (contracting). Released by S&P Global, national data are included for Germany, France, Italy, Spain, the Netherlands, Austria, the Republic of Ireland and Greece. These countries together account for an estimated 89 percent of Eurozone manufacturing activity.

Description

Investors need to keep their fingers on the pulse of the economy because it dictates how various types of investments will perform. By tracking economic data such as the ISM manufacturing index in the U.S. and the S&P Global PMIs elsewhere, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for the various markets. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers less rapid growth and is extremely sensitive to whether the economy is growing too quickly and causing potential inflationary pressures.

The S&P Global PMI manufacturing data give a detailed look at the manufacturing sector, how busy it is and where things are headed. Since the manufacturing sector is a major source of cyclical variability in the economy, this report has a big influence on the markets. And its sub-indexes provide a picture of orders, output, employment and prices.
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