In the October 3 week, mortgage rates dip slightly, but in the short term, demand for new and refinanced mortgages is down after a burst of activity in early to mid-September. The current rate levels remain more favorable for home affordability, however, consumer confidence is low amid an uncertain economic outlook. Potential homebuyers remain cautious and only willing to act when they see the right balance of price and loan rates. Current mortgage holders who want to refinance have mostly done so or are awaiting another fall in fixed interest rate loans. Some are seeing an opportunity to reduce monthly payments through an adjustable-rate mortgage that can hopefully be refinanced to a fixed rate later.

The MBA mortgage applications index is 4.7 percent lower in the October 3 week. It is 8.5 percent higher than four weeks ago and 16.4 percent higher than a year earlier. The purchase index is 1.2 percent lower in the current week and 0.9 percent higher than four weeks ago and 14.3 percent higher than a year earlier. The refinancing index is 7.7 percent lower and is 16.6 percent higher than four weeks ago and 18.3 percent higher than a year earlier. In the October 3 week, refinancing accounted for 53.3 percent of mortgage applications compared to 55.0 percent in the prior week.

The fixed-rate mortgage index is 5.9 percent lower in the October 3 week. It is 8.2 percent higher than four weeks ago and 12.0 percent higher than this week last year. The adjustable-rate mortgage index is 7.6 percent higher and is 11.7 percent higher than four weeks ago and 87.4 percent higher than a year ago.

The contract rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.43 percent in the current week. This is 3 basis points lower than the prior week, 6 basis points lower than four weeks ago, and 7 basis points higher than a year earlier. The contract rate for a 5-year adjustable-rate mortgage is 5.49 percent in the week. This is 25 basis points lower than the prior week, 28 basis points lower than four weeks ago, and 57 basis points lower than a year earlier. In the October 3 week, adjustable-rate mortgages accounted for 9.5 percent of mortgage applications compared to 8.4 percent in the prior week.

The Mortgage Bankers' Association compiles various mortgage loan indexes. The purchase applications index measures applications at mortgage lenders. This is a leading indicator for single-family home sales and housing construction.

This provides a gauge of not only the demand for housing, but economic momentum. People have to be feeling pretty comfortable and confident in their own financial position to buy a house. Furthermore, this narrow piece of data has a powerful multiplier effect through the economy, and therefore across the markets and your investments. By tracking economic data such as the Mortgage Bankers Association purchase applications, investors can gain specific investment ideas as well as broad guidance for managing a portfolio.

Each time the construction of a new home begins, it translates to more construction jobs, and income which will be pumped back into the economy. Once a home is sold, it generates revenues for the home builder and the realtor. It brings a myriad of consumption opportunities for the buyer. Refrigerators, washers, dryers and furniture are just a few items new home buyers might purchase. The economic"ripple effect" can be substantial especially when you think a hundred thousand new households around the country are doing this every month.

Since the economic backdrop is the most pervasive influence on financial markets, housing construction has a direct bearing on stocks, bonds and commodities. In a more specific sense, trends in the MBA purchase applications index carry valuable clues for the stocks of home builders, mortgage lenders and home furnishings companies.