ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
20-City Adjusted - M/M-0.1%-0.1% to 0.0%0.2%-0.1%
20-City Unadjusted - M/M-0.6%-0.3%
20-City Unadjusted - Y/Y1.6%1.2% to 2.1%1.6%1.8%

Highlights

S&P Case-Shiller reports annual house price inflation at a low 1.6 percent in August, down from 1.8 percent in July, for the 20-city measure. That matches expectations for 1.6 percent and shows housing price inflation continuing to trend down, a welcome relief for the Federal Reserve looking for progress on inflation.

The Case-Shiller 20-city adjusted index is up 0.2 percent on the month in August from July, seasonally adjusted. The unadjusted month on month figure declines 0.6 percent.

Meanwhile the Case-Shiller national index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, sees a 1.5 percent rise in July, its slowest in more than two years, and well below the 3 percent rate of overall inflation. The 10-City composite is up 2.1 percent on year versus 2.3 percent in July.

Nineteen of 20 major metro areas show declines on the month, not seasonally adjusted, which indicates broad weakness, Case-Shiller says. Only Chicago sees an increase on the month, not seasonally adjusted.

New York shows the highest annual gain among the 20 cities with a 6.1 percent increase in August, followed by Chicago at 5.9 percent and Cleveland at 4.7 percent. Tampa is off the most, falling 3.3 percent.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Case Shiller index is seen up a modest 1.6 percent on year in August versus 1.8 percent in July. These numbers were close to 5 percent at the beginning of the year and have slowed steadily since then. That reflects the slowdown in housing prices that has helped keep US inflation at bay.

Definition

The S&P Corelogic Case-Shiller home price index tracks monthly changes in the value of residential real estate in 20 metropolitan regions across the nation. Composite indexes and regional indexes measure changes in existing home prices and are based on single-family home resales. Condominiums and co-ops are excluded as is new construction. Note that forecasters, in line with recommendations from Standard & Poor's questioning the accuracy of seasonal adjustments, track both seasonally adjusted and not seasonally adjusted monthly data for this indicator.

Description

Home values affect much in the economy - especially the housing and consumer sectors. Periods of rising home values encourage new construction while periods of soft home prices can dampen housing starts. Changes in home values, and the ability to draw upon expanding lines of home equity loans, play key roles in consumer spending and in consumer financial health.

Beginning with the onset of the subprime credit crunch in mid-2007 and with it a downturn in home prices, the ability of borrowers to refinance their debt into affordable fixed rate mortgages was sharply constrained. This in turn limited aggregate consumer spending and contributed to the depth of the Great Recession. From their peak in late 2006 and early 2007 to their nadir in mid-2012, Case-Shiller's home price indexes fell nearly 50 percent. The subsequent recovery proved slow but steady with the indexes finally surpassing their prior highs in early 2018.
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