| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Index | -23.0 | -23.8 to -22.0 | -22.3 | -23.6 | -23.5 |
Highlights
Germany's consumer climate index for October 2025 shows a modest yet meaningful improvement, rising to minus 22.3 from September's revised minus 23.5. The outcome was stronger than consensus expectations of minus 23.0, suggesting consumers are regaining some confidence despite lingering headwinds.
Income expectations jumped to 15 points, offsetting earlier losses, but the rebound may be temporary given persistent inflation fears, job concerns, and geopolitical instability. Despite improved confidence in earnings, consumers remain cautious. Willingness to buy dropped to minus 11.6, its lowest since June 2024, as high food and energy costs discourage major purchases. At the same time, economic expectations weakened further, sliding to minus 1.4 points, reflecting widespread scepticism about near-term recovery.
While the index remains deeply negative, the narrowing gap indicates that households may be adjusting to high living costs and economic uncertainty with cautious resilience. The result also sits toward the more optimistic end of the forecast range (minus 23.8 to minus 22.0), hinting at stabilisation in consumer sentiment.
The result is a climate still mired in deep negativity, suggesting that the modest improvement is more of a breather than a turnaround. Consumer sentiment remains highly vulnerable to external shocks, meaning Germany's fragile consumer base may struggle to anchor recovery in the months ahead.
Income expectations jumped to 15 points, offsetting earlier losses, but the rebound may be temporary given persistent inflation fears, job concerns, and geopolitical instability. Despite improved confidence in earnings, consumers remain cautious. Willingness to buy dropped to minus 11.6, its lowest since June 2024, as high food and energy costs discourage major purchases. At the same time, economic expectations weakened further, sliding to minus 1.4 points, reflecting widespread scepticism about near-term recovery.
While the index remains deeply negative, the narrowing gap indicates that households may be adjusting to high living costs and economic uncertainty with cautious resilience. The result also sits toward the more optimistic end of the forecast range (minus 23.8 to minus 22.0), hinting at stabilisation in consumer sentiment.
The result is a climate still mired in deep negativity, suggesting that the modest improvement is more of a breather than a turnaround. Consumer sentiment remains highly vulnerable to external shocks, meaning Germany's fragile consumer base may struggle to anchor recovery in the months ahead.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus looks for the consumer sentiment index at minus 23.0 in October versus minus 23.6 in September.
Definition
GfK's consumer climate survey asks around 2,000 German consumers every month about their assessment of economic conditions. The questions focus on economic and income expectations and consumers' willingness to buy. Having calculated the differences between the positive and negative responses for each question the results are synthesized into a single number that reflects overall consumer expectations for the coming month.
Description
Any insight into household expenditure is vital to understanding how the economy as a whole is shaping up. The monthly correlation between the GfK consumer gauge and actual spending is not especially high but trends in the index can offer useful information about potential underlying developments in consumer behavior. As a forward looking indicator, the GfK index is one input used by analysts in the construction of their forecasts of future German retail sales.
