ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Quarter over Quarter0.2%0.2% to 0.5%0.5%0.3%
Annual Rate0.9%0.7% to 1.9%2.2%1.0%
Year over Year1.3%1.2% to 1.4%1.7%1.2%

Highlights

JAPAN Q2 REVISED REAL GDP: +0.5% Q/Q VS. PRELIM +0.3%; MEDIAN ECONOMIST WAS FORECAST +0.2%

JAPAN Q2 REVISED REAL GDP: +2.2% ANNUALIZED VS. PRELIM +1.0%; MEDIAN FORECAST WAS +0.9%

JAPAN Q2 REVISED GDP: DOMESTIC DEMAND CONTRIBUTION +0.2 PCT POINT VS. PRELIM -0.1 POINT; MEDIAN FORECAST WAS 0.0 POINT

JAPAN Q2 REVISED GDP: CAPEX CONTRIBUTION +0.1 PCT POINT VS. PRELIM +0.2 POINT

JAPAN Q2 REVISED GDP: PRIVATE CONSUMPTION CONTRIBUTION +0.2 PCT POINT VS. PRELIM +0.1 POINT

JAPAN Q2 REVISED GDP: PRIVATE INVENTORIES CONTRIBUTION -0.0 PCT POINT VS. PRELIM -0.3 POINT; MEDIAN FORECAST WAS -0.3 POINT


JAPAN Q2 REVISED GDP: NET EXPORT CONTRIBUTION +0.3 PCT POINT VS. PRELIM +0.3 POINT; MEDIAN FORECAST WAS +0.3 POINT

JAPAN Q1 REVISED REAL GDP: +0.1% Q/Q VS. +0.1% IN PREVIOUS REPORT, +0.3% ANNUALIZED VS. +0.6%

Market Consensus Before Announcement

The second reading of Japan’s GDP data for the April-June quarter is expected to confirm that the sluggish but somewhat resilient economy posted its fifth straight quarter-on-quarter growth, up 0.2% on quarter (0.9% annualized), little changed from the initial estimate of 0.3% (1.0% annualized). The preliminary data released on Aug. 15 showed that the stronger-than-expected Q2 growth was supported by a rebound in net exports amid modest export gains and weak imports. Domestic demand dipped amid elevated costs of living and falling wages as well as uncertainty over global growth.

In the revised Q2 GDP data, domestic demand is forecast to have provided a slightly positive 0.1 percentage point contribution to total domestic output (revised up from -0.1 point). The decline in private sector inventories by -0.3 point (unrevised) overwhelmed a 1.2% rise q/q (no forecasts for contribution) in business investment, revised down from +1.3% (+0.2 point). External demand (exports minus imports) is believed to have pushed up the Q2 GDP by 0.3 point, as reported last month.

Consensus forecasts for key components in percentage change on quarter except for private inventories and net exports, whose contributions are in percentage points. Preliminary figures are in parentheses.

GDP q/q: +0.2% (+0.3%); 5th straight rise
GDP annualized: +0.9% (+1.0%); 5th straight rise
GDP y/y: +1.3% (+1.2%); 4th straight rise
Domestic demand: 0.0 point (-0.1 point); flat after 1st rise in 2 qtrs
Private consumption: +0.2% (+0.2%); 5th straight rise
Business investment: +1.2% (+1.3%); 5th straight rise
Public investment: -0.1% (-0.5%); 1st drop in 2 qtrs
Private inventories: -0.3 point (-0.3 point); 1st drop in 2 qtrs
Net exports (external demand): +0.3 point (+0.3 point), 1st rise in 2 qtrs

Definition

Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy.

Description

Gross domestic product is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Investors in the stock market like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. Bond investors are more highly sensitive to inflation and robust economic activity could potentially pave the road to inflation. By tracking economic data such as GDP, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.

The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.
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