| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | ¥-518.60B | ¥-648.40B to ¥-247.60B | ¥-242.53B | ¥-117.55B | ¥-118.44B |
| Imports - Y/Y | -5.5% | -6.5% to -4.1% | -5.2% | -7.6% | -7.4% |
| Exports - Y/Y | -2.9% | -5.3% to -1.0% | -0.1% | -2.6% |
Highlights
JAPAN AUG EXPORTS -0.1% Y/Y (JULY -2.6%), 4TH STRAIGHT DROP; MEDIAN FORECAST -2.9%
JAPAN AUG EXPORTS NEARLY FLAT Y/Y: DROPS IN CONSTRUCTION/MINING,
CHIP-MAKING MACHINES TO US OFFSET BY GAINS IN CONSTRUCTION/MINING,COMPUTER CHIPS FOR EU
JAPAN AUG IMPORTS -5.2% Y/Y (JULY REVISED -7.4%), 2ND STRAIGHT DROP; MEDIAN FORECAST -5.5%
JAPAN AUG TRADE DEFICIT ¥242.5 BLN (JULY REVISED ¥118.44 BLN DEFICIT); 2ND STRAIGHT DEFICIT; MEDIAN FORECAST ¥518.60 BLN DEFICIT
JAPAN AUG EXPORT Y/Y DROP LED BY AUTOS, IRON/STEEL, AUTO PARTS AUTOS
JAPAN AUG IMPORT Y/Y DROP LED BY LOWER COSTS FOR CRUDE OIL, MEDICAL PRODUCTS, LNG
JAPAN AUG EXPORT VOLUMES -3.9% Y/Y, FIRST DROP IN 5 MONTHS; IMPORT VOLUMES -0.1% Y/Y, FIRST FALL IN 6 MONTHS
JAPAN AUG EXPORTS TO US -13.8% Y/Y, 5TH STRAIGHT DROP (JULY -10.1%), HIT BY AUTOS, CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY, SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING EQUIPMENT
JAPAN AUG EXPORTS TO EU +5.5%, FIRST RISE IN 2 MONTHS (JULY -3.4%), LED BY CONSTRUCTION/MINING EQUIPMENT, AUTOS, COMPUTER CHIPS, AS SEEN IN JULY
JAPAN AUG EXPORTS TO CHINA -0.5% Y/Y, 6TH STRAIGHT DROP (JULY -3.5%) ON SLOWER DEMAND FOR SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING EQUIPMENT, AUTO PARTS, NON-FERROUS METALS
JAPAN AUG EXPORTS NEARLY FLAT Y/Y: DROPS IN CONSTRUCTION/MINING,
CHIP-MAKING MACHINES TO US OFFSET BY GAINS IN CONSTRUCTION/MINING,COMPUTER CHIPS FOR EU
JAPAN AUG IMPORTS -5.2% Y/Y (JULY REVISED -7.4%), 2ND STRAIGHT DROP; MEDIAN FORECAST -5.5%
JAPAN AUG TRADE DEFICIT ¥242.5 BLN (JULY REVISED ¥118.44 BLN DEFICIT); 2ND STRAIGHT DEFICIT; MEDIAN FORECAST ¥518.60 BLN DEFICIT
JAPAN AUG EXPORT Y/Y DROP LED BY AUTOS, IRON/STEEL, AUTO PARTS AUTOS
JAPAN AUG IMPORT Y/Y DROP LED BY LOWER COSTS FOR CRUDE OIL, MEDICAL PRODUCTS, LNG
JAPAN AUG EXPORT VOLUMES -3.9% Y/Y, FIRST DROP IN 5 MONTHS; IMPORT VOLUMES -0.1% Y/Y, FIRST FALL IN 6 MONTHS
JAPAN AUG EXPORTS TO US -13.8% Y/Y, 5TH STRAIGHT DROP (JULY -10.1%), HIT BY AUTOS, CONSTRUCTION MACHINERY, SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING EQUIPMENT
JAPAN AUG EXPORTS TO EU +5.5%, FIRST RISE IN 2 MONTHS (JULY -3.4%), LED BY CONSTRUCTION/MINING EQUIPMENT, AUTOS, COMPUTER CHIPS, AS SEEN IN JULY
JAPAN AUG EXPORTS TO CHINA -0.5% Y/Y, 6TH STRAIGHT DROP (JULY -3.5%) ON SLOWER DEMAND FOR SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING EQUIPMENT, AUTO PARTS, NON-FERROUS METALS
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Key forecast points:
Japanese export values are forecast to post their fourth straight year-on-year drop in August, down 2.9%, after falling 2.6% in July, hit by the protectionist U.S. trade policy focused on the auto and metals industries as well as lingering sluggish demand from China. Toyota and other Japanese carmakers have slashed the prices to defend their their share in the all-important U.S. market, pulling down overall export values.
Import values are expected to dip 5.5% for a second straight drop following a 0.7% slip in July. The decrease is seen driven by continued y/y declines in prices for crude oil and coal as well as in payback for recent higher drug purchases. Imports of smartphones remain solid and those of computers are also strong before Microsoft stops supporting its operating system Windows 10 later this year.
Combining those factors, the trade balance is forecast to post a deficit of ¥518.60 billion following a revised ¥118.44 deficit in July. It would compare with a ¥711.44 billion deficit in August 2024.
Japanese export values are forecast to post their fourth straight year-on-year drop in August, down 2.9%, after falling 2.6% in July, hit by the protectionist U.S. trade policy focused on the auto and metals industries as well as lingering sluggish demand from China. Toyota and other Japanese carmakers have slashed the prices to defend their their share in the all-important U.S. market, pulling down overall export values.
Import values are expected to dip 5.5% for a second straight drop following a 0.7% slip in July. The decrease is seen driven by continued y/y declines in prices for crude oil and coal as well as in payback for recent higher drug purchases. Imports of smartphones remain solid and those of computers are also strong before Microsoft stops supporting its operating system Windows 10 later this year.
Combining those factors, the trade balance is forecast to post a deficit of ¥518.60 billion following a revised ¥118.44 deficit in July. It would compare with a ¥711.44 billion deficit in August 2024.
Definition
Merchandise Trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of both tangible goods and services. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade.
Description
Japan's merchandise trade balance measures visible trade and excludes services. Specifically it is the difference between imports of goods and exports of goods. A positive value indicates a trade surplus (exports exceed imports) while a negative value indicates a trade deficit (imports exceed exports). Movements in the trade balance reflect altered demand for Japanese exports which subsequently impact the yen's value and directly affect GDP growth because of the economy's dependence on trade.
The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have a dramatic effect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.
The report gives insight into changing trends regarding Japanese trade. Such developments are especially important for Japan, which is an export-oriented economy that has historically experienced large trade surpluses and any change can have a dramatic effect on the domestic economy. Typically the headline number is the change from the previous year in yen along with the percentage change in exports and in imports from the previous year.
