| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 1.2% | 0.7% to 1.4% | -1.1% | -1.6% | |
| Year over Year | 0.8% | 0.6% to 1.1% | -1.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
Highlights
JAPAN AUG RETAIL SALES -1.1% Y/Y (JULY REVISED UP TO +0.4% FROM +0.3%); 1ST DROP IN 41 MONTHS; MEDIAN FORECAST +0.8% (RANGE: +0.6% TO +1.1%)
JAPAN AUG RETAIL SALES RARE Y/Y DROP SHOWS IT WAS NOT SAFE TO GO SHOPPING DURING PEAK OF SEVERE, FATAL HEAT WAVE
JAPAN AUG RETAIL SALES -1.1% M/M (JULY -1.6%); MEDIAN FORECAST +1.2% (RANGE: +0.7% TO +1.4%)
JAPAN AUG RETAIL SALES Y/Y FALL LED BY AUTOS AFTER RECOVERY FROM 2024 SLUMP CAUSED BY TOYOTA SAFETY SCANDAL; DEPARTMENT STORES, FOOD/BEVERAGES AS PEOPLE STAYED HOME AMID EXTREME HEAT WAVE
JAPAN AUG RETAIL SALES: ELECTRONIC APPLIANCES (AIR CONDITIONERS, FANS), DRUGS, COSMETICS REMAIN STRONG
JAPAN AUG RETAIL SALES RARE Y/Y DROP SHOWS IT WAS NOT SAFE TO GO SHOPPING DURING PEAK OF SEVERE, FATAL HEAT WAVE
JAPAN AUG RETAIL SALES -1.1% M/M (JULY -1.6%); MEDIAN FORECAST +1.2% (RANGE: +0.7% TO +1.4%)
JAPAN AUG RETAIL SALES Y/Y FALL LED BY AUTOS AFTER RECOVERY FROM 2024 SLUMP CAUSED BY TOYOTA SAFETY SCANDAL; DEPARTMENT STORES, FOOD/BEVERAGES AS PEOPLE STAYED HOME AMID EXTREME HEAT WAVE
JAPAN AUG RETAIL SALES: ELECTRONIC APPLIANCES (AIR CONDITIONERS, FANS), DRUGS, COSMETICS REMAIN STRONG
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Japanese retail sales are forecast to show a modest 0.8% rise on the year in August after slowing sharply to a meager 0.4% gain in July. The pickup reflects a rebound in department store sales in reaction to a year earlier slump caused by rain storms. It is also seen propped up by demand for summer clothing and beverages but relentless heat waves dampened appetite for autumn clothing.
Nationwide subsidies have cut fuel prices in recent months, exerting slight downward pressures on overall retail sales while demand for drugs and cosmetics stays intact.
On the month, retail sales are expected to mark a 1.2% rebound on a seasonally adjusted basis, after slumping 1.6% in July.
Last month, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintained its assessment after downgrading it for the first time in eight months in the June report, saying retail sales were “taking one step forward and one step back,” instead of being “on a gradual pickup trend.”
Nationwide subsidies have cut fuel prices in recent months, exerting slight downward pressures on overall retail sales while demand for drugs and cosmetics stays intact.
On the month, retail sales are expected to mark a 1.2% rebound on a seasonally adjusted basis, after slumping 1.6% in July.
Last month, the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry maintained its assessment after downgrading it for the first time in eight months in the June report, saying retail sales were “taking one step forward and one step back,” instead of being “on a gradual pickup trend.”
Definition
Retail Sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data are part of the Preliminary Report on the Current Survey of Commerce.
Description
Another way to look at consumer spending in addition to the household spending survey is through the retail sales report. This report gives the total value of goods and services sold each month at retail outlets. The preferred number is the change from the previous year. The report serves as a direct gauge of consumption and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is one of the most important leading indicators for the Japanese economy. Increasing sales signal consumer confidence and economic growth, but higher consumption also leads to inflationary pressures.
