| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | €15.5B | €15.0B to €21.4B | €14.7B | €14.9B | €15.4B |
| Imports - M/M | -0.1% | 4.2% | 4.1% | ||
| Imports - Y/Y | 4.5% | 5.9% | 5.8% | ||
| Exports - M/M | -0.6% | 0.8% | 1.1% | ||
| Exports - Y/Y | 1.3% | 0.1% | 0.5% |
Highlights
Germany's foreign trade in July showed that exports slipped by 0.6 percent month-over-month to €130.2 billion, while imports edged down by 0.1 percent to €115.4 billion. Despite these declines, both flows remained higher than a year earlier, with exports up 1.3 percent and imports up 4.5 percent. The surplus stood at €14.7 billion, healthy, but notably smaller than July 2024's €17.7 billion, reflecting pressure on Germany's trade cushion.
Trade within the EU was the bright spot. Exports rose 2.5 percent and imports 1.1 percent, signalling steady regional integration. Capital flows to eurozone and non-eurozone partners both strengthened, suggesting the EU remains Germany's most reliable trade anchor. The sharpest contraction came in Russia, where exports (minus 12.4 percent) and imports (minus 43.9 percent) collapsed, reinforcing the impact of sanctions and shifting geopolitical ties.
Outside the bloc, however, headwinds were evident. Exports to the United States fell sharply (minus 7.9 percent monthly, minus 14.1 percent annually), marking a fourth consecutive decline and the weakest performance since late 2021. Shipments to China (minus 7.3 percent) and the UK (minus 3.1 percent) also dropped, underlining fragile demand in key markets. Imports from China contracted (minus 2.4 percent), while inflows from the US plunged (minus 10 percent).
Overall, Germany's trade engine remains steady but is increasingly reliant on the EU to offset global softness, taking the RPI to minus 8 and the RPI-P to minus 13. This means that adjusted for prices, economic activities continue to remain below the expectations of the German economy.
Trade within the EU was the bright spot. Exports rose 2.5 percent and imports 1.1 percent, signalling steady regional integration. Capital flows to eurozone and non-eurozone partners both strengthened, suggesting the EU remains Germany's most reliable trade anchor. The sharpest contraction came in Russia, where exports (minus 12.4 percent) and imports (minus 43.9 percent) collapsed, reinforcing the impact of sanctions and shifting geopolitical ties.
Outside the bloc, however, headwinds were evident. Exports to the United States fell sharply (minus 7.9 percent monthly, minus 14.1 percent annually), marking a fourth consecutive decline and the weakest performance since late 2021. Shipments to China (minus 7.3 percent) and the UK (minus 3.1 percent) also dropped, underlining fragile demand in key markets. Imports from China contracted (minus 2.4 percent), while inflows from the US plunged (minus 10 percent).
Overall, Germany's trade engine remains steady but is increasingly reliant on the EU to offset global softness, taking the RPI to minus 8 and the RPI-P to minus 13. This means that adjusted for prices, economic activities continue to remain below the expectations of the German economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The surplus is expected to widen slightly to E15.5 billion in July from E14.9 billion in June.
Definition
The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness.
Description
Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.
