| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HICP - Y/Y | 2.1% | 2.1% to 2.3% | 2.1% | 2.0% |
| Narrow Core - Y/Y | 2.2% | 2.1% to 2.4% | 2.3% | 2.3% |
Highlights
Services followed closely at 3.1 percent, again easing slightly from 3.2 percent, but still signalling strong underlying demand-driven inflation. Non-energy industrial goods held steady at 0.8 percent, showing limited price movement, while energy remained in negative territory at minus 1.9 percent, though less deflationary than July's minus 2.4 percent.
Regionally, headline inflation rose in Germany (2.1 percent after 1.8 percent) but fell in France (0.8 percent after 0.9 percent). However, it remained stable in Spain (2.7 percent after 2.7 percent) and Italy (1.7 percent after 1.7 percent).
The challenge ahead remains balancing the ECB's inflation target with growth considerations, as stable but sticky inflation in consumer essentials could keep household purchasing power under pressure despite declining energy costs. This latest update takes the RPI to 8 and the RPI-P to minus 3, meaning that economic activities are within the expectations of the euro area economy.
Definition
Description
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments.
Inflation (along with various risks) basically explains how interest rates are set on everything from your mortgage and auto loans to Treasury bills, notes and bonds. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the HICP are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.