SOYBEANS:
Quarterly Grain Stocks reported September 1 soybean stocks at 316 million bushels, versus an average expectation of 325 million bushels and a range of expectations from 295 million to 366 million. September 1 stocks last year were 342 million. On-farm stocks were 91.5 million bushels, down from 111.2 million a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 225 million bushels, down from 231.2 million a year ago.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Soybean stocks came in slightly below the guesses, but not enough to be a major market surprise. USDA also revised the 2024 bean production estimate up to 7.74 million bushels. With no major shocks in this report, the focus will quickly return to ideal harvest weather this week, with significant progress expected through early next week before above-normal precipitation moves into the western belt. The soy complex, in general, is struggling with the prospect of the US missing the normal China demand window this fall/early winter, and that is the major ongoing bearish issue that must be resolved before any sustained rally can be expected. We are hearing reports from farmers in the eastern belt that bean sizes are smaller than normal, which is reducing yields from what was expected. However, this may take some time for the USDA to consider this. In the meantime, harvest pressure is likely to push prices lower in the short term.


CORN:
Quarterly Grain Stocks reported September 1 corn stocks at 1.532 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 1.336 billion bushels and a range of expectations from 1.26-1.45 billion. September 1 stocks last year were 1.763 billion. June 1 stocks were 4.644 billion bushels. On-farm stocks were 643 million bushels, down from 780 a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 888 million bushels, down from 983 a year ago. The USDA also revised its 2024 corn production estimate higher by 25 million bushels to 14.891 billion bushels.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Despite the historic tendency for USDA to come in below the average guess recently, that was not the case today. Quarterly stocks were above even the highest estimate and can be considered bearish. 2024 corn production was revised up 25 million bushels, and planted area was revised slightly higher as well. Strong demand and very competitive US prices have supported corn prices despite weak soybean and wheat prices. With stocks now higher than expected and a record crop coming home, bearish headwinds will be very strong, at least until harvest is 50% complete. Nearby support is likely to be tested on December corn in the 407 ? 411 range.


WHEAT:
The September Small Grains report showed all wheat production at 1.985 billion bushels, compared to the average of 1.921 billion (range: 1.898-1.950 billion). All winter wheat production is estimated at 1.402 billion bushels, compared to the average of 1.352 billion (range: 1.342-1.375 billion). Hard-Red Winter wheat is estimated at 804 million bushels, versus 768 estimated. Soft-Red Winter 353 versus 339 estimated. White Winter 244 compared to 246 estimated. Other Spring 497 compared to 482 estimated. Durum wheat 86 compared to 86 estimated. Quarterly Grain Stocks reported September 1 wheat stocks at 2.12 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 2.054 billion bushels and a range of expectations from 1.975-2.22 billion. September 1 stocks last year were 1.992 billion. June 1 stocks were 850.5 million bushels. On-farm stocks were 692 million bushels, up from 664 million a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 1.43 billion bushels, up from 1.328 billion a year ago.

PRICE OUTLOOK: The USDA released a surprisingly bearish report today, with quarterly stocks coming in toward the high end of the estimates. All Wheat, All Winter Wheat, and Hard Red Winter stocks were all above the highest estimate. The report was expected to show little change in production, so the bearish numbers have pushed wheat prices down for a test of the contract lows following the report's release. Plentiful global supplies have been a bearish factor for wheat for some time, but now the bulls must contend with higher US stocks as well. Look for wheat to remain under pressure in the near term.?

This full-text report, issued four times yearly, contains stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, mustard seed, by States and U.S. and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage); includes number and capacity of off-farm storage facilities and capacity of on-farm storage facilities. The data is obtained via an off and on-farm stocks survey, the on-farm survey is a probability survey of farm operators, the off-farm stocks survey is enumerates the volume of grain in all known commercial grain storage facilities.

Unlike the WASDE and other USDA reports, this report measures actual (counted) supply, not estimates or forecasts. It helps verify or correct the estimates in other the USDA reports, such as WASDE.

September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.

The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.

The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.