| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Import Prices - M/M | -0.2% | -0.3% to 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Import Prices - Y/Y | 0.0% | -0.2% to 0.2% | 0.0% | -0.2% |
| Export Prices - M/M | -0.2% | -0.3% to 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Export Prices - Y/Y | 3.4% | 2.2% |
Highlights
Import prices and export prices come in hotter than expected with increases of 0.3 percent in August from July for both. That compares with decreases of 0.2 percent anticipated for both in the Econoday consensus forecast.
On year, import prices are flat while export prices are up 3.4 percent.
On the month, import fuel prices are down 0.8 percent in August after rising by 2.5 percent in July and 0.6 percent in June. Excluding fuel, import prices are up 0.4 percent in August after holding steady in July. The August increase in non-fuel prices is the largest monthly rise since it rose 0.6 percent in April 2024. This reflects higher prices in August for consumer goods, nonfuel industrial supplies and materials, capital goods, and automotive vehicles which more than offset lower prices for foods, feeds, and beverages. On year, nonfuel import prices are up 0.9 percent.
On the export side, price increases for nonfarm exports were up 3.4 percent to drive the annual increase. U.S. export prices rose 3.4 percent over the 12-month period ended in August, the largest increase since the index rose 4.6 percent for the year ended December 2022.
On year, import prices are flat while export prices are up 3.4 percent.
On the month, import fuel prices are down 0.8 percent in August after rising by 2.5 percent in July and 0.6 percent in June. Excluding fuel, import prices are up 0.4 percent in August after holding steady in July. The August increase in non-fuel prices is the largest monthly rise since it rose 0.6 percent in April 2024. This reflects higher prices in August for consumer goods, nonfuel industrial supplies and materials, capital goods, and automotive vehicles which more than offset lower prices for foods, feeds, and beverages. On year, nonfuel import prices are up 0.9 percent.
On the export side, price increases for nonfarm exports were up 3.4 percent to drive the annual increase. U.S. export prices rose 3.4 percent over the 12-month period ended in August, the largest increase since the index rose 4.6 percent for the year ended December 2022.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Import prices are expected down 0.2 percent on the month and exports also down 0.2 percent on the month in August after rising 0.4 percent and 0.1 percent in July.
Definition
Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices, which exclude tariffs and taxes, measure underlying inflationary trends in internationally traded products.
Description
Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar. The bond market is especially sensitive to the risk of importing inflation because it erodes the value of the principal (the original investment) which is paid back when the bond matures. It also decreases the value of the steady stream of interest rate payments on this type of security. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that's bad news for stocks, as well. By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolios.
