Highlights

Central to Chair Powell's remarks at his post-meeting press briefing was the word risk.

He termed the modest 25-basis point cut in the fed funds rate range to 4.00 to 4.25 percent as a risk management move to address the shifting balance of risks between the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Recent economic data has added weight to the risks for employment.

While inflation risks remain to the upside, Powell noted that the base case is that the price increases related to tariffs are expected to be one-time increases, not persistent sources of inflation. He added that higher prices reaching the consumer level are smaller than previously expected and slower to arrive although these will eventually pass through. With the labor market in a low hiring, low firing mode that does not point to rapid rises in unemployment, the FOMC can take measured steps to reducing the level of restrictive monetary policy.

Powell noted that there are no risk-free paths for deciding monetary policy. The FOMC remains focused on the economic data and decisions are made meeting by meeting. He said there was a great deal of unity in the September 17 rate decision.

Powell declined to answer questions about the arrival of new governor Stephen Miran beyond saying the FOMC welcomed a new member today and that no one voter out of the 12 at an FOMC could determine the monetary policy decision.

In response to questions about the wide spread of readings on the charts in the summary of economic projections, Powell said, Right now is a particularly challenging time for forecasters, and that uncertain times will naturally result in a broader range of readings. Overall, the revisions in the median forecasts in the quarterly update to the SEP were modest and show that a resilient US economy is adapting to evolving policy from the White House.

Definition

The Fed announced in 2011 that then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke would hold press briefings four times a year to explain the FOMC's latest quarterly economic projections. The purpose of the briefings is to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions and to allow for questions-and-answers with the press. According to the Fed, the"introduction of regular press briefings is intended to further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy communication." The press briefing is held at 2:30 p.m. ET on the days of FOMC statements in which quarterly projections are released. Beginning in 2019, the briefing will be held after each FOMC meeting. The policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET after the conclusion of every FOMC meeting regardless of whether there are forecasts or not.

Description

The Fed’s meeting statement and economic projections can move financial markets. However, the Fed’s meeting statement — which indicates any changes in monetary policy—typically is very concise and lacking in detail. However, the Fed now releases its economic forecasts four times a year. As of March 20, 2013, the forecasts are released at the same time as the FOMC statement during the months of March, June, September, and December. After each of the 8 Fed meetings, the chair holds a press conference to explain the forecasts and other policy issues. The chair’s press conference allows for the financial markets and public in general to learn more about why and how the monetary policy decision was made and to learn more about FOMC views on the direction of the economy—including real growth, inflation, unemployment, expected timing of changes in the fed funds rate, and expected levels of the fed funds rate in the near term.
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