Highlights
He termed the modest 25-basis point cut in the fed funds rate range to 4.00 to 4.25 percent as a risk management move to address the shifting balance of risks between the dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability. Recent economic data has added weight to the risks for employment.
While inflation risks remain to the upside, Powell noted that the base case is that the price increases related to tariffs are expected to be one-time increases, not persistent sources of inflation. He added that higher prices reaching the consumer level are smaller than previously expected and slower to arrive although these will eventually pass through. With the labor market in a low hiring, low firing mode that does not point to rapid rises in unemployment, the FOMC can take measured steps to reducing the level of restrictive monetary policy.
Powell noted that there are no risk-free paths for deciding monetary policy. The FOMC remains focused on the economic data and decisions are made meeting by meeting. He said there was a great deal of unity in the September 17 rate decision.
Powell declined to answer questions about the arrival of new governor Stephen Miran beyond saying the FOMC welcomed a new member today and that no one voter out of the 12 at an FOMC could determine the monetary policy decision.
In response to questions about the wide spread of readings on the charts in the summary of economic projections, Powell said, Right now is a particularly challenging time for forecasters, and that uncertain times will naturally result in a broader range of readings. Overall, the revisions in the median forecasts in the quarterly update to the SEP were modest and show that a resilient US economy is adapting to evolving policy from the White House.