ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Change0bp0bp to 0bp0bp0bp
Level0.5%0.5% to 0.5%0.5%0.5%

Highlights

BOJ BOARD DECIDES TO KEEP OVERNIGHT INTEREST RATE TARGET AT 0.5% FOR 5TH STRAIGHT MEETING AFTER HIKING RATE BY 25 BPS IN JAN

BOJ BOARD VOTE ON SHORT-TERM RATE TARGET WAS 7-2, AS ACCURATELY PREDICTED BY ECONODAY CHIEF JAPAN ANALYST/CORRESPONDENT MAX SATO AN HOUR AHEAD OF BOJ RATE ANNOUNCEMENT

BOJ BOARD DECIDES IN UNANIMOUS VOTE TO SELL OFF ITS HOLDINGS OF ETFS, J-REITS, AS SOON AS IT'S READY, AS PART OF UNWINDING OF EXCESS MONETARY EASING

BOJ ETF, OTHER ASSETS SELLOFF PLANS: TO AVOID INCURRING LOSSES, DISTURBING FINANCIAL MARKETS AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE

BOJ ASSET SELLOFF PLANS: IN A WAY SIMILAR TO SELLING OF JAPANESE SHARES BOUGHT FOR PURCHASE OF HELPING STABILIZING FINANCIAL SYSTEM (FINISHED IN JULY)

BOJ: STOCK SELLOFF DONE: TOTALING ABOUT Y150BLN OR Y620 AT MARKET VALUE, LIMITING EACH TRANSACTION SUM TO 0.05% OF TOTAL TRADING VALUES

BOJ ETF SELLOFF PLANS: TOTALING ABOUT Y330 BLN OR Y620 AT MARKET VALUE, LIMITING EACH TRANSACTION SUM TO 0.05% OF TOTAL TRADING VALUES

BOJ J-REIT SELLOFF PLANS: TOTALING ABOUT Y5.5 BLN OR Y5.5 AT MARKET VALUE, LIMITING EACH TRANSACTION SUM TO 0.05% OF TOTAL TRADING VALUES

BOJ ASSET SELLOFF PLANS: VALUES ARE ANNUAL PACE FOR ALL ASSETS

BOJ REPEATS JULY QUARTERLY OUTLOOK VIEW: JAPAN ECONOMIC GROWTH LIKELY TO MODERATE AMID HIGH UNCERTAINTY OVER TRADE ROWS

BOJ ALSO REPEATS: MUST WATCH TRADE WAR IMPACT ON FINANCIAL, FOREX MARKETS, JAPAN GROWTH, INFLATION

BOJ: TWO BOARD MEMBERS CALLED FOR RAISING TARGET FOR OVERNIGHT INTEREST RATE BY 25 BPS (0.25 PCT POINT) TO 0.75% NOW

BOJ: BOARD MEMBER HAJIME TAKATA, FORMERLY WITH MIZUHO SECURITIES, ARGUED 2% PRICE STABILITY TARGET HAS BEEN LARGELY MET

BOJ: BOARD MEMBER NAOKI TAMURA, FORMERLY WITH SMBC, URGED CENTRAL BANK TO TICK POLICY RATE UP CLOSER TO NEUTRAL RATE AMID RISING INFLATION RISK

Market Consensus Before Announcement

At its Sept. 18-19 meeting, the Bank of Japan’s nine-member board is expected to decide to maintain the target for the overnight interest rate at 0.5% for the fifth straight meeting after hiking it by 25 basis points (0.25 percentage point) in January amid uncertainty over trade rows. A majority, if not unanimous, vote is widely anticipated in light of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to step down, taking the blame for crushing defeats for his ruling Liberal Democratic Party in general elections, first in the upper house last year and in the lower house in July.

The bank has repeated in its recent policy statements that it will continue raising rates if growth and inflation evolve in line with its medium-term outlook but it is still in the process of normalizing its monetary policy stance from years of keeping short-term rates near zero percent.

Definition

The Bank of Japan is the central bank of Japan. The Bank of Japan Act states that the bank's monetary policy should be aimed at"achieving price stability, thereby contributing to the sound development of the national economy." The nine-member policy board reviews economic conditions at home and abroad before making a policy decision. There is no specific time for the announcement. The board holds eight two-day Monetary Policy Meetings a year, in January, March, April, June, July, September, October and December. At each meeting, the board votes on the proposals on the bank’s monetary policy stance and the basic guideline on how to achieve the policy target submitted by the chair of the board, who is the bank governor.

Description

The announcement of the bank’s monetary policy decision after each meeting can cause a market reaction, even when there is no change to the policy stance. Markets tend to look ahead toward a policy shift, pricing in a change to the bank’s targets for overnight and long-term interest rates, the pace of financial asset purchases or the scale of market operations.

Market participants closely monitor the news conference by the BoJ governor that usually starts at 1530 JST (0130 EST/0230 EDT/0630 GMT), a few hours after the bank releases its policy decision. Comments from the governor could provide clues to what the bank may or may not do in the near term, which in turn could trigger buying or selling of the yen against the dollar.

Since April 2023, the bank has been conducting a"broad-perspective review" of the costs and benefits of its various monetary easing measures implemented in the past 25 years. The negative overnight interest rate target introduced in January 2016 has been unpopular among lenders as it squeezes their profit margins.
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