Highlights
The Econoday consensus looks for July CPI up 0.2 percent overall and up 0.3 percent excluding food and energy, with total CPI up 2.8 percent and 3.0 percent on year. Those readings excluding food and energy, the so-called core, will be scrutinized for signs that tariffs on imported goods are increasingly showing up in prices for consumer goods. Given all the weak data lately and rate cut expectations, markets appear vulnerable in the event of an upside inflation surprise. The challenge for the Fed is how to respond if the economy continues to weaken and inflation moves higher.