| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter over Quarter | 0.3% | 0.3% to 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
| Year over Year | 0.7% | 0.7% to 0.7% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
Highlights
Trade was a drag on the economy in the first and second quarters, subtracting 0.5 and 0.3 points, respectively. During the second quarter, exports rose 0.5 percent, bolstered by pharma, after a 1.2 percent decline during the first quarter. Imports grew 1.3 percent in the second quarter, their biggest gain since a 1.9 percent increase in the second quarter of 2023.
Changes in inventories contributed 0.5 points to GDP in the second quarter, helped mainly by transportation equipment. With the tariff dispute with the US, inventory buildup has been a regular feature in many European economies as businesses were stockpiling ahead of their imposition.
Consumers remained subdued in the second quarter, with household consumption flat. Still, that was an improvement over the first quarter when spending pulled back 0.3 percent. Government spending on the other hand rose 0.4 percent in the second quarter, the 18th consecutive quarter of increased outlays.
Trade continues to be the dominant story, and will remain so for the coming quarters as the effects of the US tariffs work their way more fully into the economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.