| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.2% | 0.2% to 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Year over Year | 1.0% | 1.0% to 1.0% | 1.0% | 1.0% |
| HICP - M/M | 0.3% | 0.3% to 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| HICP - Y/Y | 0.9% | 0.9% to 0.9% | 0.9% | 0.9% |
Highlights
Prices for services rose 1.3 percent in July, led by a 10.2 percent increase in transportation costs, as airfares increased 7.6 percent on the month. Compared to July of last year, services cost 2.5 percent more.
Manufactured goods prices painted a different picture, falling 2.4 percent in July and 0.2 percent from a year ago. The sector has been dogged by contracting order books and flagging demand, with other indicators pointing to price cutting in order to maintain market share.
Energy prices are up 0.9 percent over June, although 7.2 percent lower than July of last year, extending the 6.7 percent year-on-year decline in June. One of the contributing factors was natural gas prices which slowed to 5.7 percent in July from 17 percent, year-on-year, in June due to a basis effect when comparing to last year's prices.
The HICP measure used for comparing inflation across European economies was up 0.3 percent in July month-on-month and 0.9 percent from their year-ago level.
Clearly there are no systemic prices pressures evident in the French economy at the moment, but the dichotomy between the process for services and manufactured products is something to consider. Consumers can more easily put off purchases of manufactured goods, but not so much for services which if the latter continues to trend higher could take a bite out of discretionary income and, by extension, retail sales.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
France like other EMU countries has both a national CPI and a harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP). The HICP is calculated to give a comparable inflation measure for the EMU. Components and weights within the national CPI vary from other countries, reflecting national idiosyncrasies.
Inflation is an increase in the overall prices of goods and services. The relationship between inflation and interest rates is the key to understanding how indicators such as the CPI influence the markets - and your investments. As the rate of inflation changes and as expectations on inflation change, the markets adjust interest rates. The effect ripples across stocks, bonds, commodities, and your portfolio, often in a dramatic fashion.
By tracking inflation, whether high or low, rising or falling, investors can anticipate how different types of investments will perform. Over the long run, the bond market will rally (fall) when increases in the CPI are small (large). The equity market rallies with the bond market because low inflation promises low interest rates and is good for profits.