ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Month over Month1.6%1.6% to 1.7%1.5%-1.1%
Year over Year6.6%4.9%

Highlights

Retail sales increased 1.5 percent in June after contracting 1.2 percent in May, roughly in line with expectations in an Econoday survey of forecasters. Sales increased across sectors and regions, led by stronger activity as illustrated by the 1.5 percent gain in volumes.

Core sales, excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers and gasoline stations and fuel vendors, were up 1.9 percent on the month.

Over the second quarter, retail sales expanded 0.4 percent, or 0.7 percent in volume, more relevant to real GDP.

The advance indicator for July points to retail sales retreating 0.8 percent.

In June, a lower percentage of retailers reported being impacted by Canada-U.S. trade tensions (27 percent) than in May (32 percent). Price gains, demand and delays in supply chain were the most commonly cited factors.

Motor vehicles and parts sales edged up 0.2 percent on the month, following a 3.4 percent decline in May. Gasoline and fuel was up 1.8 percent after three consecutive monthly declines, with volumes up 2.7 percent.

Core sales were driven by a 2.3 percent advance in food and beverages, led by a 1.8 percent increase at supermarket and other grocery retailers. Sales were also strong in clothing, clothing accessories, shoes, jewelry, luggage and leather goods (up 5.1 percent) and general merchandise (1.6 percent).

The advance estimate for June real GDP points to an increase of 0.1 percent, with gains in retail and wholesale trade.

The Bank of Canada's July consumer expectations survey pointed to weakened spending intentions through the second quarter in the face of employment and tariff concerns. At the July 30 meeting, the Governing Council members agreed that the spillovers from lower export demand into business investment, employment and household spending had been limited so far. The central bank highlighted uncertainty about how households, along with businesses and governments, would adapt to tariffs. Today's data show resilience, although it isn't expected to last in July.

E-commerce sales were down 1.7 percent in June, making up 5.9 percent of total retail trade, down from 6.1 percent in May.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Sales expected at up 1.6 percent in June, as Statistics Canada projected, after falling by 1.1 percent in May. A chunk of this reflects a 2.2 percent jump in auto prices. Core sales, ex-autos and gas, are also expected up strongly on the month.

Definition

Retail sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The headline data are reported in cash terms and disaggregated into eleven main subsectors. Aggregate volume figures are also provided.

Description

With consumer spending a large part of the economy, market players continually monitor spending patterns. Data are available both for total retail sales and those excluding autos and for 16 different store specializations. Since autos account for over 25 percent of retail sales, the sector can have a pronounced impact on overall sales given their volatility. Retail sales are used to estimate the goods portion of personal consumer expenditures in the quarterly GDP accounts, accounting for about 50 percent of the total.

The pattern in consumer spending is often the foremost influence on stock and bond markets. For stocks, strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. For bonds, the focus is whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth.

Retail sales not only give you a sense of the big picture, but also the trends among different types of retailers. Perhaps apparel sales are showing exceptional weakness but electronics sales are soaring. These trends from the retail sales data can help you spot specific investment opportunities, without having to wait for a company's quarterly or annual report.
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