| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.1% to 0.2% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Year over Year | 0.9% | 1.2% |
Highlights
Canada GDP contracted another 0.1 percent in June, a disappointing performance as forecasters in an Econoday survey had expected a 0.1 percent advance.
With three consecutive monthly declines of 0.1 percent, real GDP was down 0.2 percent in the second quarter, partially offsetting the 0.4 percent growth in the first quarter. Canada's GDP had not contracted for three consecutive months since the fourth quarter of 2022.
The advance estimate for July points to a 0.1 percent recovery.
The contraction was led by a 0.5 percent decline in goods-producing industries, the third decrease in a row.
Overall, activity contracted in 11 of 20 industrial sectors.
Within goods-producing industries, manufacturing activity fell 1.5 percent in June, led by a 2.1 percent drop in durables. Utilities were down 1.2 percent, and agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting was down 0.4 percent. Construction was up 0.3 percent and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction edged up 0.1 percent. Energy increased 0.4 percent and overall industrial production contracted 0.9 percent.
In services, transportation and warehousing was down 0.3 percent after rising 0.6 percent in May, while retail trade expanded 1.4 percent. Activity also increased in wholesale trade (0.5 percent). Real estate, and rental and leasing rose 0.3 percent to reach a record high level, reflecting rising resale activity.
Public administration edged up 0.1 percent and the publi sector was down 0.1 percent.
Advance estimates for Julhy point to a continued growth in real estate and rental and leasing,
mining and quarrying (except oil and gas) and wholesale trade. retail trade activity, by contrast, seemed to have declined in July.
With three consecutive monthly declines of 0.1 percent, real GDP was down 0.2 percent in the second quarter, partially offsetting the 0.4 percent growth in the first quarter. Canada's GDP had not contracted for three consecutive months since the fourth quarter of 2022.
The advance estimate for July points to a 0.1 percent recovery.
The contraction was led by a 0.5 percent decline in goods-producing industries, the third decrease in a row.
Overall, activity contracted in 11 of 20 industrial sectors.
Within goods-producing industries, manufacturing activity fell 1.5 percent in June, led by a 2.1 percent drop in durables. Utilities were down 1.2 percent, and agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting was down 0.4 percent. Construction was up 0.3 percent and mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction edged up 0.1 percent. Energy increased 0.4 percent and overall industrial production contracted 0.9 percent.
In services, transportation and warehousing was down 0.3 percent after rising 0.6 percent in May, while retail trade expanded 1.4 percent. Activity also increased in wholesale trade (0.5 percent). Real estate, and rental and leasing rose 0.3 percent to reach a record high level, reflecting rising resale activity.
Public administration edged up 0.1 percent and the publi sector was down 0.1 percent.
Advance estimates for Julhy point to a continued growth in real estate and rental and leasing,
mining and quarrying (except oil and gas) and wholesale trade. retail trade activity, by contrast, seemed to have declined in July.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Another marginal 0.1 percent rise expected for Canada’s GDP in June from May. At least it’s positive.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. In contrast to most industrialised countries a monthly estimate is provided derived from the value added by labour and capital in transforming inputs purchased from other producers into that industry's output. Data for the reference month are usually released close to the end of the second month after the reference period.
Description
Instead of producing an advanced quarterly GDP figure and revising it the following two months, Statistics Canada releases monthly estimates of real GDP at Basic Prices. This release breaks down real output by seven goods-producing industries and twelve service-producing industries, and includes special aggregations such as business sector, non-business sector, and industrial production.
The sources of data used for monthly and quarterly estimates often differ and leads to very different estimates for certain items, such as price deflators. As a result, the monthly figures are not perfectly correlated with the quarterly numbers. However, the monthly data do give some idea of where the quarter is headed and especially in an uncertain environment, they are closely watched. While industrial production is closely watched in the U.S., it is not in Canada especially since the economy has become increasingly dominated by services. However, the goods sector is more vulnerable to wide swings in output compared to services, and exports remain dominated by industrial output.
The sources of data used for monthly and quarterly estimates often differ and leads to very different estimates for certain items, such as price deflators. As a result, the monthly figures are not perfectly correlated with the quarterly numbers. However, the monthly data do give some idea of where the quarter is headed and especially in an uncertain environment, they are closely watched. While industrial production is closely watched in the U.S., it is not in Canada especially since the economy has become increasingly dominated by services. However, the goods sector is more vulnerable to wide swings in output compared to services, and exports remain dominated by industrial output.
