| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.1% | -0.6% to 0.5% | -1.6% | 1.0% | 0.9% |
| Year over Year | 1.8% | 1.0% to 2.6% | 0.3% | 2.0% | 1.9% |
Highlights
Japan July Retail Sales +0.3% Y/Y (June Revised Down To +1.9 From +2.0%); 40th Straight Rise; Median Forecast +1.8% (Range: +1.0% To +2.6%)
Japan July Retail Sales -1.6% M/M (June Revised Down To +0.9% From +1.0%); Median Forecast +0.1% (Range: -0.6% To +0.5%)
Japan July Retail Sales Nearly Flat Y/Y After Front-Run Buying Of Air Conditions By June, Sluggish Inbound Spending Amid Firmer Yen, 2024 Peak
Japan Record Heat Waves Shore Up Demand For Summer Clothing, Beverages; Sales of Drugs, Cosmetics Remain Strong
Japan METI Keeps Its View After Downgrading It Last Month: Retail Sales Taking One Step Forward, One Step Back
Japan July Retail Sales -1.6% M/M (June Revised Down To +0.9% From +1.0%); Median Forecast +0.1% (Range: -0.6% To +0.5%)
Japan July Retail Sales Nearly Flat Y/Y After Front-Run Buying Of Air Conditions By June, Sluggish Inbound Spending Amid Firmer Yen, 2024 Peak
Japan Record Heat Waves Shore Up Demand For Summer Clothing, Beverages; Sales of Drugs, Cosmetics Remain Strong
Japan METI Keeps Its View After Downgrading It Last Month: Retail Sales Taking One Step Forward, One Step Back
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Key forecasts:
--Japanese retail sales are forecast to show a modest 1.8% rise on the year in July, staying on a sluggish trend following a 1.9% gain in each of the previous two months and slowing from +3.5% in April, as consumers had already scrambled to replace or repair their existing air conditioners before June in anticipation of life-threatening heat waves and typhoons.
--Retail sales are seen nearly flat on a seasonally adjusted basis, up just 0.1% after rising a solid 1.0% in June, slipping 0.6% in May and rising 0.7% in April.
--Government subsidies have cut fuel prices in recent months, exerting downward pressures on retail sales while demand for drugs and cosmetics stays intact.
--Department store sales posted a sixth straight year-on-year decline, hit by lower inbound spending amid a firmer yen and stricter duty-free shopping rules.
--New passenger car sales units posted their first y/y drop in seven months in July but vehicle sales in METI’s retail sales are provide only in values and thus could paint a complexly different picture than what industry data had shown. Demand for vehicles has been on a gradual recovery trend after last year’s production suspension by the Toyota Motor group over safety test scandals.
--Japanese retail sales are forecast to show a modest 1.8% rise on the year in July, staying on a sluggish trend following a 1.9% gain in each of the previous two months and slowing from +3.5% in April, as consumers had already scrambled to replace or repair their existing air conditioners before June in anticipation of life-threatening heat waves and typhoons.
--Retail sales are seen nearly flat on a seasonally adjusted basis, up just 0.1% after rising a solid 1.0% in June, slipping 0.6% in May and rising 0.7% in April.
--Government subsidies have cut fuel prices in recent months, exerting downward pressures on retail sales while demand for drugs and cosmetics stays intact.
--Department store sales posted a sixth straight year-on-year decline, hit by lower inbound spending amid a firmer yen and stricter duty-free shopping rules.
--New passenger car sales units posted their first y/y drop in seven months in July but vehicle sales in METI’s retail sales are provide only in values and thus could paint a complexly different picture than what industry data had shown. Demand for vehicles has been on a gradual recovery trend after last year’s production suspension by the Toyota Motor group over safety test scandals.
Definition
Retail Sales measure the total receipts at stores that sell durable and nondurable goods. The data are part of the Preliminary Report on the Current Survey of Commerce.
Description
Another way to look at consumer spending in addition to the household spending survey is through the retail sales report. This report gives the total value of goods and services sold each month at retail outlets. The preferred number is the change from the previous year. The report serves as a direct gauge of consumption and consumer confidence. Consumer spending is one of the most important leading indicators for the Japanese economy. Increasing sales signal consumer confidence and economic growth, but higher consumption also leads to inflationary pressures.
