| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rate | 2.5% | 2.4% to 2.5% | 2.3% | 2.5% |
Highlights
JAPAN JULY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE OVER 5-YEAR LOW OF 2.3% (2.5% IN JUNE, MAY, APR, MAR, 2.4% IN FEB, 2.5% IN JAN); MEDIAN FORECAST 2.5% (RANGE: 2.4% TO 2.5%)
JAPAN S/A ADJUSTED JOBLESS RATE AT 2.3% LOWEST SINCE DEC 2019 (2.2%) IN EARLY PHASE OF PANDEMIC
JAPAN JULY EMPLOYMENT UP 550,000 Y/Y AT 68.50 MILLION FOR 36TH STRAIGHT Y/Y GAIN (JUNE +510,000)
JAPAN JULY UNEMPLOYED DOWN 190,000 Y/Y AT 1.69 MLN (-50,000 IN JUNE); 6TH STRAIGHT DROP
JAPAN S/A ADJUSTED JOBLESS RATE AT 2.3% LOWEST SINCE DEC 2019 (2.2%) IN EARLY PHASE OF PANDEMIC
JAPAN JULY EMPLOYMENT UP 550,000 Y/Y AT 68.50 MILLION FOR 36TH STRAIGHT Y/Y GAIN (JUNE +510,000)
JAPAN JULY UNEMPLOYED DOWN 190,000 Y/Y AT 1.69 MLN (-50,000 IN JUNE); 6TH STRAIGHT DROP
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Key forecast:
--The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Japan is forecast to stay low and stable at 2.5% in July after staying at the rate in the previous four months and edging down to 2.4% in February. Payrolls seen up on year for the 36th straight month amid widespread labor shortages. Other data show real wages are falling amid high costs of living.
--The government continues to describe employment conditions as"showing signs of improvement” in its latest monthly economic report but real wages fell for the sixth straight month in June, down 1.3% on the year, in the face of rising costs of living while nominal wages gained a modest 2.5%.
--The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in Japan is forecast to stay low and stable at 2.5% in July after staying at the rate in the previous four months and edging down to 2.4% in February. Payrolls seen up on year for the 36th straight month amid widespread labor shortages. Other data show real wages are falling amid high costs of living.
--The government continues to describe employment conditions as"showing signs of improvement” in its latest monthly economic report but real wages fell for the sixth straight month in June, down 1.3% on the year, in the face of rising costs of living while nominal wages gained a modest 2.5%.
Definition
The Unemployment Rate measures the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. The unemployment rate is part of the Labour Force Survey which also includes employment data.
Description
The unemployment rate and employment change are carefully monitored. The employment data show the number employment along with the change in employment for the previous year. Monthly changes in employment also help clarify whether businesses are hiring. The unemployment rate is the percentage of the labor force that is unemployed. A lower jobless rate translates into more income earning workers and greater consumption. Increased spending is a positive for consumer oriented economic growth, something that has lagged in Japan.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events.
