| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter over Quarter | -0.1% | -0.1% to -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.1% |
| Year over Year | 0.4% | 0.4% to 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
Highlights
Trade acted as a drag on the economy as a 0.4 percent gain in imports was outpaced by a 1.7 percent fall off in exports in the second quarter. Compared to year-ago levels, imports are up 2.5 percent and exports down 0.3 percent.
Among the other main components, gross fixed capital formation rose 1.0 percent in the second quarter from the first and was up 2.5 percent from the second quarter of last year. Final consumption expenditures were stable compared to the first three months of the year, and up 0.6 percent from last year's second quarter.
Italy's economy is moribund, and unlikely to see any meaningful expansion this year. The concern is that if inflation, relatively low currently, continues to pick up and put the economy into a phase of stagflation.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.