ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Month over Month0.2%0.2% to 0.2%0.1%-0.3%

Highlights

The revised report shows wholesale inventories up 0.1 percent in June from May, just below the flash report showing an increase of 0.2 percent. Year-over-year, wholesale inventories are up 1.3 percent compared to June last year. The April to May change was revised to show a decline of 0.4 percent from the previously reported minus 0.3 percent.

Notable in wholesale inventories is the 1.2 percent month-over-month decline in the automotive sector both in June and May. Inventories of lumber are down 1.7 percent in June after up 0.3 percent in May. Inventories of computer equipment are down 1.0 percent in June after down 13.6 percent in May. The push to build inventories of hard goods in advance of higher tariffs has slackened.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

No revision expected in the revised figure from an increase of 0.2 percent in the flash.

Definition

Wholesale trade measures the dollar value of sales made and inventories held by merchant wholesalers. It is a component of business sales and inventories.

Description

Investors need to monitor the economy closely because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers a slower rate of growth that won't lead to inflationary pressures. Wholesale sales and inventory data give investors a chance to look below the surface of the visible consumer economy. Activity at the wholesale level can be a precursor for consumer trends. In particular, by looking at the ratio of inventories to sales, investors can see how fast production will grow in coming months. For example, if inventory growth lags sales growth, then manufacturers will need to boost production lest product shortages occur. On the other hand, if unintended inventory accumulation occurs (i.e. sales did not meet expectations), then production will probably have to slow while those inventories are worked down. In this manner, the inventory data provide a valuable forward-looking tool for tracking the economy.
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