| Actual | Previous | Revised | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Claimant Count - M/M | -6.2 | 25.9 | -15.5 | ||
| Claimant Count Unemployment Rate | 4.4% | 4.5% | 4.4% | ||
| ILO Unemployment Rate | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% | 4.7% to 4.8% | |
| Average Earnings - Y/Y | 4.6% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 4.8% to 5.0% |
Highlights
The UK labour market in mid-2025 showed that payrolled employees declined by 149,000 over the year to June and a further 164,000 by July, signalling subdued hiring momentum. While the employment rate for 1664-year-olds rose to 75.3 percent, unemployment edged up to 4.7 percent, suggesting more people are actively seeking work. Economic inactivity fell to 21.0 percent, hinting at a gradual re-entry into the workforce.
Vacancies fell for the 37th consecutive period, down 44,000 to 718,000, with most industries reporting fewer openings, reflecting possible caution among employers about recruitment or replacement hiring. Wages continued to grow robustly, with regular earnings up 5.0 percent and higher in the public sector (5.7 percent) than in the private sector (4.8%), while total earnings including bonuses, were 4.6 percent. Real pay growth remained modest at 0.9% (CPIH-adjusted), indicating inflation's lingering squeeze on household purchasing power.
Meanwhile, the Claimant Count fell to 1.695 million, offering a counterpoint to softening payroll numbers. However, 38,000 working days were lost to labour disputes in June, underscoring ongoing tensions in pay and conditions. Overall, the data suggest a labour market in transition, holding steady in employment rates but facing persistent recruitment caution and wage-price pressures. These latest updates take the RPI to minus 19 and the RPI-P to minus 34, meaning that economic activities are now behind the expectations of the UK economy.
Vacancies fell for the 37th consecutive period, down 44,000 to 718,000, with most industries reporting fewer openings, reflecting possible caution among employers about recruitment or replacement hiring. Wages continued to grow robustly, with regular earnings up 5.0 percent and higher in the public sector (5.7 percent) than in the private sector (4.8%), while total earnings including bonuses, were 4.6 percent. Real pay growth remained modest at 0.9% (CPIH-adjusted), indicating inflation's lingering squeeze on household purchasing power.
Meanwhile, the Claimant Count fell to 1.695 million, offering a counterpoint to softening payroll numbers. However, 38,000 working days were lost to labour disputes in June, underscoring ongoing tensions in pay and conditions. Overall, the data suggest a labour market in transition, holding steady in employment rates but facing persistent recruitment caution and wage-price pressures. These latest updates take the RPI to minus 19 and the RPI-P to minus 34, meaning that economic activities are now behind the expectations of the UK economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The ILO jobless rate is seen flat at 4.7 percent in July versus 4.7 percent in June. Earnings expected up 5.0 percent on year, unchanged from the June rate.
Definition
The Labour Market Report covers a number of key areas of the jobs market. Unemployment is updated on the basis of two separate surveys: the claimant count, which measures the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits, and the more reliable but lagging International Labour Organization's (ILO) measure that excludes jobseekers that did any work during the month and covers those people who are both looking and are available for work. Average earnings growth, a key determinant of inflation, is also updated.
Description
The labour market survey gives the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them and what they are getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state as well as the future direction of the economy.
The survey also provides information on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will have to rise and bond and stock prices will fall. In contrast, when jobs growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are more likely to decline - boosting bond and stock prices in the process.
The survey also provides information on wage trends, and wage inflation is high on the Bank of England's list of enemies. Bank officials constantly monitor this data watching for even the smallest signs of potential inflationary pressures, even when economic conditions are soggy. If inflation is under control, it is easier for the Bank to maintain a more accommodative monetary policy. If inflation is a problem, the Bank is limited in providing economic stimulus - it must stay within range of its mandated inflation target.
By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, it is a reasonable bet that interest rates will have to rise and bond and stock prices will fall. In contrast, when jobs growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are more likely to decline - boosting bond and stock prices in the process.
