| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter over Quarter | 0.1% | 0.1% to 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% |
| Year over Year | 0.9% | 0.7% to 1.0% | 1.2% | 1.3% |
Highlights
In output terms, services, the UK's dominant sector, expanded by 0.4 percent, while construction posted robust growth of 1.2 percent, underscoring resilience in infrastructure and building activity. However, production contracted by 0.3 percent, highlighting continued pressures in manufacturing and related industries.
Real GDP per head grew by 0.2 percent in the quarter, and by 0.7 percent year-over-year, indicating that output gains were modest once population growth was factored in. Importantly, no revisions were made to previously published GDP figures, with more comprehensive data updates scheduled for August and September 2025 under the National Accounts Revisions Policy.
Overall, the second quarter performance points to a steady, service-led economy bolstered by construction, but tempered by weakness in production. The slower quarterly growth suggests that while the economy is expanding, underlying sectoral imbalances remain, taking the RPI to 9 and the RPI-P to 9. Meaning that economic activities are within the expectations of the UK economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.
Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth. For example, if the UK reports that the consumer price index has risen more than the Bank of England's 2 percent inflation target, demand for sterling could decline. Similarly, when the Bank of England lowers interest rates, the pound sterling weakens. (Currency traders also watch the interest rate spread between countries.)