ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Quarter over Quarter0.1%0.1% to 0.3%0.3%0.7%
Year over Year0.9%0.7% to 1.0%1.2%1.3%

Highlights

The UK economy maintained its growth trajectory in the second quarter of 2025, with GDP rising by 0.3 percent, following a stronger 0.7 percent expansion in the first quarter. Compared with the same period in 2024, GDP grew by 1.2 percent, reflecting steady but moderating momentum.

In output terms, services, the UK's dominant sector, expanded by 0.4 percent, while construction posted robust growth of 1.2 percent, underscoring resilience in infrastructure and building activity. However, production contracted by 0.3 percent, highlighting continued pressures in manufacturing and related industries.

Real GDP per head grew by 0.2 percent in the quarter, and by 0.7 percent year-over-year, indicating that output gains were modest once population growth was factored in. Importantly, no revisions were made to previously published GDP figures, with more comprehensive data updates scheduled for August and September 2025 under the National Accounts Revisions Policy.

Overall, the second quarter performance points to a steady, service-led economy bolstered by construction, but tempered by weakness in production. The slower quarterly growth suggests that while the economy is expanding, underlying sectoral imbalances remain, taking the RPI to 9 and the RPI-P to 9. Meaning that economic activities are within the expectations of the UK economy.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Growth expected at a weaker 0.1 percent on quarter in the first report for Q2 after rising 0.7 percent in Q1.

Definition

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. Since 2018, the first, or provisional, estimate includes the GDP expenditure components as well as data on the main output sectors. These results are updated in the second, and final, report.

Description

GDP is the all-inclusive measure of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market Investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. The GDP report contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. These data are readily comparable to other industrialized countries. GDP components such as consumer spending, business and residential investment, and price (inflation) indexes illuminate the economy's undercurrents, which can translate to investment opportunities and guidance in managing a portfolio.

Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.

Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower.

Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth. For example, if the UK reports that the consumer price index has risen more than the Bank of England's 2 percent inflation target, demand for sterling could decline. Similarly, when the Bank of England lowers interest rates, the pound sterling weakens. (Currency traders also watch the interest rate spread between countries.)
Upcoming Events

CME Group is the world’s leading derivatives marketplace. The company is comprised of four Designated Contract Markets (DCMs). 
Further information on each exchange's rules and product listings can be found by clicking on the links to CME, CBOT, NYMEX and COMEX.

© 2026 CME Group Inc. All rights reserved.