| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quarter over Quarter | 0.1% | 0.1% to 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% |
| Year over Year | 1.4% | 1.4% to 1.4% | 1.4% | 1.4% |
Highlights
By contrast, the United States posted a stronger performance, with GDP expanding by 0.7 percent in the second quarter following a 0.1 percent contraction in the first quarter. Annual growth in the US held steady at 2.0 percent, maintaining a clear gap over the euro area.
The euro area's modest quarterly uptick reflects subdued domestic demand and lingering structural headwinds, while the US benefited from a rebound in activity after a weak start to the year. The divergence underscores differing economic trajectories between the two economies, with the euro area at risk of stagnation and the US demonstrating greater short-term resilience.
While the annual growth rate for the euro area remains positive, the second quarter slowdown suggests policymakers may face increasing pressure to address weak investment and consumption trends to prevent further deceleration. This latest update takes the RPI to minus 1 and the RPI-P to minus 3, meaning that economic activities are now within the expectations of the euro area economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Definition
Description
Each financial market reacts differently to GDP data because of their focus. For example, equity market participants cheer healthy economic growth because it improves the corporate profit outlook while weak growth generally means anemic earnings. Equities generally drop on disappointing growth and climb on good growth prospects.
Bond or fixed income markets are contrarians. They prefer weak growth so that there is less of a chance of higher central bank interest rates and inflation. When GDP growth is poor or negative it indicates anaemic or negative economic activity. Bond prices will rise and interest rates will fall. When growth is positive and good, interest rates will be higher and bond prices lower. Currency traders prefer healthy growth and higher interest rates. Both lead to increased demand for a local currency. However, inflationary pressures put pressure on a currency regardless of growth.