ConsensusConsensus RangeActualPrevious
Total Vehicle Sales - Annual Rate15.6M15.1M to 16.0M16.4M15.3M
North American-Made Sales - Annual Rate12.8M12.0M

Highlights

Sales of new motor vehicles benefited from increased inventories and dealers' willingness to offer incentives to keep inventory from accumulating at a time of uncertainty and consumer pessimism. This could also be consumers taking an opportunity to buy while prices had yet to feel the full impact of new tariffs on imports while negotiations are ongoing.

Sales may have been stronger than usual in July at a time when supplies are normally lower in advance of the new model year. Sales may also have seen a little pent-up demand after the softer pace in the prior two months,

Sales of new motor vehicles rose to a seasonally adjusted annual pace of 16.4 million units in July from 15.3 million units in June. This is above the consensus for July of 15.6 million units in the Econoday survey of forecasters. July sales of domestically produced motor vehicles are up to 12.8 million units after 12.0 million units in June. Domestically produced motor vehicles account for 78 percent of all sales.

Sales of passenger cars are up slightly to 2.610 million units in July after 2.543 million in June. Sales of light trucks which includes minivans, SUVs, and crossovers are up to 13.801 million units after 12.782 million units in June. Sales of light trucks have 84 percent of the total, a record high share.

Sales of heavy trucks which are mostly to businesses investing in equipment sped up to 455,000 in July after 443,000 in June. Tis the fastest pace since 454,000 in December at a time when businesses were investing in equipment in anticipation of higher costs in 2025.

Market Consensus Before Announcement

Sales expected somewhat better at a 15.6 million unit rate versus 15.3 million in June.

Definition

Unit sales of motor vehicles, published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the beginning of each month, include domestic sales and imports. Domestics are sales of autos produced in the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. Imports are U.S. sales of vehicles produced elsewhere. The data track all passenger cars and light trucks up to 14,000 pounds gross weight (including minivans and sport utility vehicles). Though totals include a relatively small portion sold to businesses, motor vehicle sales are good indicators of trends in consumer spending and often are considered a leading indicator at business cycle turning points.

Description

Since motor vehicle sales are an important element of consumer spending, market players watch this closely to get a handle on the direction of the economy. The pattern of consumption spending is one of the foremost influences on stock and bond markets. Strong economic growth translates to healthy corporate profits and higher stock prices. The bond market focus is on whether economic growth goes overboard and leads to inflation. Ideally, the economy walks that fine line between strong growth and excessive (inflationary) growth. This balance was achieved through much of the nineties. For this reason alone, investors in the stock and bond markets enjoyed huge gains during the bull market of the 1990s.

Retail sales growth did slow down in tandem with the equity market during the 2001 recession but then, boosted by a low interest rate environment, rose sharply through 2007 before falling sharply during the Great Recession. Sales then recovered and, once again boosted by low rates, began a long period of steady and favorable growth.

In a more specific sense, auto and truck sales show market conditions for auto makers and the slew of auto-related companies. These figures can influence particular stock prices and provide insight to investment opportunities in this industry. Given that most consumers borrow money to buy cars or trucks, sales also reflect confidence in current and future economic conditions.
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