US retail sales figures are in focus at 8:30 am ET today as the focus returns to macro data after Wednesday's scare about President Trump supposedly planning to fire Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Expectations for retail sales call for an increase of 0.1 percent on the month in June with sales excluding vehicles up 0.3 percent and sales ex-vehicles and gas up 0.1 percent. Note these are nominal figures so in inflation-adjusted terms they would show declines. The market sees consumers pulling back given the turmoil and uncertainty around tariffs, federal spending cuts, and more.

After reports circulated on Wednesday that Trump had shown a group of House Republicans a draft letter firing Powell, stocks sold off, bond yields spiked and the dollar dropped before stabilizing when the president walked back the story. As that kind of market reaction appears to be the primary check on Trump, perhaps he will decide to wait until Powell's term as chair expires in eight months before putting in a more pliant chair. Of course, all are watching for Trump's next move against Powell. Perhaps Treasury Secretary Bessent can explain to the president that removing Powell would be counterproductive and disastrous, first because long-term rates, the ones the president cares most about, will soar if Trump follows up on this threat.

Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.

Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.