The surprising 33K drop in US private payrolls reported Wednesday versus the rise of 103K anticipated in the Econoday consensus is adding to focus on Thursday's monthly official employment report. It has prompted some downward revisions to nonfarm payroll forecasts though one might note the ADP's track record of anticipating payrolls is mixed at best. The Econoday consensus for payrolls now sits at 110k, down from 115K before ADP, and may go lower.

The miss on ADP pushed down bond yields from the day's highs and underscored expectations for more rate cuts in the pipeline. It also ratchets up pressure on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who repeated the Fed is data dependent and said he would not take any meeting on or off the table for rate cuts this year.

Meanwhile, with President Trump's tariff pause scheduled to run out on July 8, focus on the trade war is back to the fore. The White House has been downplaying expectations for trade deals in place by then while Trump, typically, has played up his openness to playing hardball on July 9. If there is a repeat of anything like April 2 when he imposed huge tariffs on nearly every trade partner, all bets are off.

Market Focus details key factors in the coming day that will impact the economic outlook and the financial markets. These include central bank events, economic indicators, policymaker speeches as well as expected political and corporate developments.

Keeping up-to-date with event schedules and the economic calendar is key to understanding the global financial system. Econoday's Market Focus allows investors and policymakers to carefully track what will be making news and moving the financial markets in the coming day.