| Actual | Previous | Consensus | Consensus Range | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | -0.16% | 0.93% | ||
| Year over Year | 4.8% | 6.4% | 5.2% | 4.7% to 6.1% |
Highlights
Chinese retail sales rose 4.8 percent on the year in June, slowing sharply from growth of 6.4 percent in May and below the consensus forecast of 5.2 percent. In month-over-month terms, retail sales fell 0.16 percent in May after an increase of 0.93 percent in May. In the statement accompanying today's data, officials noted that domestic demand is insufficient and pledged to accelerate the creation of a new pattern of development.
More broadly, officials characterised quarterly and monthly data published today as showing the economy"withstood pressure and made steady improvement despite challenges". Although officials refrained from explicitly referring to trade tensions with the United States, they noted a need to"coordinate domestic economic work and endeavours in the international economic and trade field" and to"cope with external uncertainties". Officials reiterated their commitment to"more proactive and effective macro policies" but provided no specific guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were mixed relative to consensus forecasts. The China's RPI and RPI-P rose from minus 7 and minus 10 respectively to zero, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in at consensus forecasts.
More broadly, officials characterised quarterly and monthly data published today as showing the economy"withstood pressure and made steady improvement despite challenges". Although officials refrained from explicitly referring to trade tensions with the United States, they noted a need to"coordinate domestic economic work and endeavours in the international economic and trade field" and to"cope with external uncertainties". Officials reiterated their commitment to"more proactive and effective macro policies" but provided no specific guidance about whether additional changes to policy settings will be considered in the near-term.
Data published today were mixed relative to consensus forecasts. The China's RPI and RPI-P rose from minus 7 and minus 10 respectively to zero, indicating that recent Chinese data in sum are coming in at consensus forecasts.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The consensus sees annual growth in sales down to 5.2 percent in June versus 6.4 percent in May.
Definition
Retail Sales measure goods that are sold to the consumer or end-user, generally in small quantities and in the state in which they were purchased by the retailer. China's retail sales are reported monthly. The critical value is the change from the same month in the previous year.
Description
Retail sales tend to have a muted impact because the Chinese economy is not heavily reliant on consumer spending. However, the government is trying to stimulate consumer spending to give the economy more balance. To this end, the government put into place a basket of stimulus measures, including government subsidies and tax breaks for home appliances and cars, to expand consumption to sustain the economic growth, which was slowed by a slump in exports amid the global economic downturn.
