| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Index | -0.10 | -0.28 | -0.16 |
| 3-Month Moving Average | -0.22 | -0.16 | -0.14 |
Highlights
The Chicago Fed national activity index (CFNAI) is up to minus 0.10 in June after minus 0.16 in May. The four broad categories of indicators that make up the index show 1 positive and 3 negative contributions in June. Among the categories 2 increased and 2 decreased.
The Chicago Fed says,"Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35." The index briefly fell below that level at minus 0.36 in April but is modestly expansionary in the next two months. Expansion in June is largely due to increased personal consumption that reflects worries about future price increases related to higher tariffs. Consumer confidence remains low and worries about job security are elevated. This does not suggest a firm underlying spending trend.
Production-related indicators are up to minus 0.01 in June after minus 0.06 in May. Sales, orders, and inventories are down to positive 0.04 in June after minus 0.01 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are down to minus 0.05 in June after minus 0.01 in May. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are up to positive 0.01 in June after minus 0.10 one month ago.
The three-month moving average CFNAI in June is minus 0.22 compared to minus 0.14 in the prior month.
The Chicago Fed says,"Periods of economic expansion have historically been associated with values of the CFNAI Diffusion Index above -0.35." The index briefly fell below that level at minus 0.36 in April but is modestly expansionary in the next two months. Expansion in June is largely due to increased personal consumption that reflects worries about future price increases related to higher tariffs. Consumer confidence remains low and worries about job security are elevated. This does not suggest a firm underlying spending trend.
Production-related indicators are up to minus 0.01 in June after minus 0.06 in May. Sales, orders, and inventories are down to positive 0.04 in June after minus 0.01 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators are down to minus 0.05 in June after minus 0.01 in May. Indicators for personal consumption and housing are up to positive 0.01 in June after minus 0.10 one month ago.
The three-month moving average CFNAI in June is minus 0.22 compared to minus 0.14 in the prior month.
Definition
The Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI) is a monthly index that tracks overall economic activity and inflationary pressures. The CFNAI is a weighted average of 85 existing monthly indicators of national economic activity. It is constructed to have an average value of zero and a standard deviation of one. Since economic activity tends toward trend growth over time, a positive index reading corresponds to growth above trend and a negative index reading corresponds to growth below trend.
Description
This index is unique among regional Federal Reserve Bank indexes in that it is national in scope. Investors are eager to have insight into economic growth and inflation. This index combines 85 diverse and already released indicators from four broad categories -- production and income; employment, unemployment, and hours; personal consumption and housing; and sales, orders, and inventories -- into an overall index to measure economic performance. The index provides another measure with which investors can measure overall growth.
