Germany's unemployment rate continues to steady at 6.3 percent in June, 0.1 percent below the consensus forecast for June. The number of unemployed individuals rose to 2.972 million in June, up from 2.963 million in May. June was the 30th month of elevated unemployment, reflecting continued pressure on the labour market and a cautious hiring outlook among employers. Notably, job vacancies fell by 9,000, which is weaker than the 13,000 vacancy decline in the previous month, representing a sharp 31 percent decline, which strongly suggests that hiring demand has significantly weakened.

The high number of unemployed individuals at 6.3 percent and the continued fall in job vacancies weaken household income and spending power. If these trends persist, they may signal structural issues in the labour market and call for targeted policy interventions. This latest update takes the RPI to minus 15 and the RPI-P to minus 6. This means that economic activities are now slightly behind the expectations of the German economy.

The consensus looks for unemployment to tick up to 6.4 percent in June from 6.3 percent in May.

The unemployment rate is calculated by the Federal Employment Agency based on the number of unemployed persons as a percentage of the number of all civilian members of the labour force (dependant civilian employed persons, the self-employed family workers and unemployed). Unemployed is defined as persons who between the ages of 15 and 65 and who are without employment or only with short-time employment (currently less than 15 hours per week) and seeking an employment of at least 15 hours per week subject to compulsory insurance.

A snag to understanding German unemployment data comes from the fact that there are several measures of unemployment available. Unemployment rates calculated by the Bundesbank are preferred but some German analysts check the unadjusted rates as well. And then there are still different rates for unemployment that are used by Eurostat to compute their unemployment rate. The spread between the Bundesbank rates and Eurostat can be quite significant. The reason for the often sizeable differential is found in the interpretation of the ILO definition.

Unlike in the U.S. no wage data are included in this report. But by tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If labor markets are tight, investors will be alert to possible inflationary pressures that could exist. If wage inflation threatens, it's a good bet that interest rates will rise; bond and stock prices will fall. No doubt that the only investors in a good mood will be the ones who watched the employment report and adjusted their portfolios to anticipate these events. In contrast, when job growth is slow or negative, then interest rates are likely to decline - boosting up bond and stock prices in the process.