In May 2025, Germany's export performance showed modest resilience, edging up 2.8 percent year-over-year to an unadjusted €130.2 billion despite a monthly calendar and seasonally adjusted dip of 1.4 percent. Imports told a stronger story, rising 6.1 percent annually to €112.6 billion (unadjusted) but declining by 3.8 percent from April (calendar and seasonally adjusted). This led to a seasonally adjusted trade surplus of €18.4 billion, higher than April's revised €15.8 billion but trailing behind May 2024's €22.3 billion, reflecting a narrowing surplus trend.

Trade within the EU weakened, with exports (2.2 percent) and imports (3.6 percent) dropping, particularly among eurozone partners. Outside the EU, exports remained relatively stable (minus 0.3 percent), but imports contracted more sharply (minus 4.1 percent).

Notably, exports to the United States slumped by 7.7 percent month-over-month and 13.8 percent year-over-year, hitting their lowest since March 2022. Exports to China also declined, while trade with the UK surged, with exports up 15.1 percent. On the import side, China remained Germany's top source despite a slight decrease, whereas imports from the US plunged by 10.7 percent.

Trade with Russia remained minimal, with exports down 12.1 percent and imports up 9.4 percent from April. These updates take the RPI to 4 and the RPI-P to 18, meaning that economic activities are slightly ahead of the expectations of the German economy.

The surplus is seen way up at E17.0 billion in May versus E14.6 million in April.

The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade and can offer a guide to an economy's competitiveness.

Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect currency values in foreign exchange markets.

Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services in Germany. Exports show the demand for German goods in countries overseas. Given the size of the German economy, the euro can be sensitive to changes in the trade balance. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.