| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.1% | 0.0% to 0.1% | -0.1% | -0.3% | -0.1% |
| 3-Months over 3-Months | 0.4% | 0.4% to 0.4% | 0.5% | 0.7% |
Highlights
The UK economy contracted by 0.1 percent in May 2025, extending April's decline and revealing a fragile recovery path. Despite a promising 0.4 percent growth in March (revised up), momentum has faltered over the past two months, suggesting an uneven economic landscape.
Still, the broader picture is more encouraging: GDP grew 0.5 percent in the three months to May, mainly supported by the services sector, which rose 0.1 percent in May and 0.4 percent over the three-month period. This signals ongoing demand from consumers and businesses, particularly in contact-intensive industries.
In contrast, production output plunged by 0.9 percent in May, continuing April's slump. This indicates persistent weakness in manufacturing and energy-intensive sectors, likely due to input cost pressures or fluctuations in global demand. Meanwhile, construction dipped 0.6 percent in May, partly reversing April's gain, though the sector still recorded a robust 1.2 percent rise over the quarter, possibly due to renewed infrastructure and housing investment.
Overall, while the quarterly trend remains positive, May's contraction highlights underlying vulnerabilities. The divergence between resilient services and struggling production suggests that the recovery is imbalanced, taking the RPI to minus 7 and the RPI-P to 1. This means that economic activities are now within the expectations of the UK economy.
Still, the broader picture is more encouraging: GDP grew 0.5 percent in the three months to May, mainly supported by the services sector, which rose 0.1 percent in May and 0.4 percent over the three-month period. This signals ongoing demand from consumers and businesses, particularly in contact-intensive industries.
In contrast, production output plunged by 0.9 percent in May, continuing April's slump. This indicates persistent weakness in manufacturing and energy-intensive sectors, likely due to input cost pressures or fluctuations in global demand. Meanwhile, construction dipped 0.6 percent in May, partly reversing April's gain, though the sector still recorded a robust 1.2 percent rise over the quarter, possibly due to renewed infrastructure and housing investment.
Overall, while the quarterly trend remains positive, May's contraction highlights underlying vulnerabilities. The divergence between resilient services and struggling production suggests that the recovery is imbalanced, taking the RPI to minus 7 and the RPI-P to 1. This means that economic activities are now within the expectations of the UK economy.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
GDP expected up a modest 0.1 percent in May from April and up 0.4 percent on the quarter.
Definition
Gross domestic product (GDP) is the broadest measure of aggregate economic activity and encompasses every sector of the economy. The monthly report is based on output data only as the income and expenditure series are not available.
Description
GDP covers all aspects of economic activity. Investors need to closely track the economy because it usually dictates how investments will perform. Stock market investors like to see healthy economic growth because robust business activity translates to higher corporate profits. GDP contains a treasure-trove of information which not only paints an image of the overall economy, but tells investors about important trends within the big picture. However, the monthly report is quite limited and only provides data on the main output sectors. More detailed information is available in the quarterly reports.
