| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Month over Month | 0.6% | -1.3% to 1.7% | 1.7% | -2.4% | -2.2% |
| Year over Year | 1.6% | 0.1% to 3.3% | 3.7% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
Highlights
In May, industrial production rebounded by 1.7 percent over the month after a revised decline of 2.2 percent in April. This revival was driven by surging demand for non-durable consumer goods, which soared 8.5 percent month-over-month, suggesting a shift in household consumption towards essentials amidst lingering economic uncertainty.
Energy production also saw a solid 3.7 percent uplift, reflecting possible seasonal or supply-side shifts, while capital goods rose by 2.7 percent, hinting at renewed investment confidence. However, the decline in intermediate goods (minus 1.7 percent) and durable consumer goods (minus 1.9 percent) suggests that some supply chain bottlenecks and consumer caution persist.
Year-over-year, the picture is even more optimistic: total industrial output jumped 3.7 percent compared to May 2024. Notably, non-durable consumer goods surged 11.6 percent, showing strong household resilience. Capital goods followed with a 4.5 percent rise, potentially pointing to long-term economic optimism. Yet, the annual fall in intermediate goods (minus 1.8 percent) might signal structural issues within production chains.
Regionally, industrial production on an annual basis rose in Germany (1.9 percent after minus 2.5 percent) and Spain (1.7 percent after 0.4 percent), while it slightly rose in France (minus 1.0 percent after minus 1.5 percent) but remained in negative territory for France. However, it fell in Italy (minus 0.9 percent after 0.1 percent) on an annual basis.
Summarily, May's data show that industrial production is recovering, with strength in consumer essentials and investment signalling a stabilising industrial base in the euro area. This latest update takes the RPI to 16 and the RPI-P to 19, meaning that economic activities in the euro area are now ahead of the expectations of the bloc.
Energy production also saw a solid 3.7 percent uplift, reflecting possible seasonal or supply-side shifts, while capital goods rose by 2.7 percent, hinting at renewed investment confidence. However, the decline in intermediate goods (minus 1.7 percent) and durable consumer goods (minus 1.9 percent) suggests that some supply chain bottlenecks and consumer caution persist.
Year-over-year, the picture is even more optimistic: total industrial output jumped 3.7 percent compared to May 2024. Notably, non-durable consumer goods surged 11.6 percent, showing strong household resilience. Capital goods followed with a 4.5 percent rise, potentially pointing to long-term economic optimism. Yet, the annual fall in intermediate goods (minus 1.8 percent) might signal structural issues within production chains.
Regionally, industrial production on an annual basis rose in Germany (1.9 percent after minus 2.5 percent) and Spain (1.7 percent after 0.4 percent), while it slightly rose in France (minus 1.0 percent after minus 1.5 percent) but remained in negative territory for France. However, it fell in Italy (minus 0.9 percent after 0.1 percent) on an annual basis.
Summarily, May's data show that industrial production is recovering, with strength in consumer essentials and investment signalling a stabilising industrial base in the euro area. This latest update takes the RPI to 16 and the RPI-P to 19, meaning that economic activities in the euro area are now ahead of the expectations of the bloc.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters expect industrial output to rebound by 0.6 percent on month in May after falling 2.4 percent on the month in April. The call for the yearly change is an increase of 1.6 percent after 0.8 percent in April.
Definition
Industrial production measures the physical output of factories, mines and utilities. The measure provided by Eurostat excludes the volatile construction subsector for which data are released a few days later.
Description
Industrial production measures changes in the volume of output for the EMU's member states. The industrial production index provides a measure of the volume trend in value added at factor cost over a given reference period, excluding VAT and other similar deductible taxes. The preferred number is industrial production excluding construction. As with other EMU statistics, the data are provided by the national statistics offices to Eurostat (the European Union statistical agency) where it is combined to produce an overall output measure.
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
Investors want to keep their finger on the pulse of the economy because it usually dictates how various types of investments will perform. The stock market likes to see healthy economic growth because that translates to higher corporate profits. The bond market prefers more subdued growth that will not lead to inflationary pressures. By tracking economic data such as industrial production, investors will know what the economic backdrop is for these markets and their portfolios.
