| Consensus | Consensus Range | Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Balance | $-99.0B | $-130.0B to $-90.0B | $-86.0B | $-96.6B | $-96.4B |
| Imports - M/M | -4.2% | 0.0% | -0.1% | ||
| Exports - M/M | -0.6% | -5.2% | -5.7% |
Highlights
At the end of the second quarter 2025, international trade continues to feel the effects of unsettled tariff policy. The rush to stock up on imported goods before new tariffs are imposed continues to fade, while trading partners are buying US some products in the lulls between announced tariff increases and the effective dates.
The international trade deficit for goods only is narrower at $86.0 billion in June after a small revision to a deficit of $96.4 billion in May. The June deficit is above the consensus of a deficit of $99.0 billion in the Econoday survey of forecasters.
Exports of goods are down 0.6 percent in June from May, mainly from a 8.1 percent decrease in exports of industrial supplies, while most other categories had an increase.
Imports of goods are down 4.2 percent in June from May. There is an increase of 0.6 percent in capital goods. However, all other categories had a decline. In particular, imports of consumer goods is down 12.4 percent.
The international trade deficit for goods only is narrower at $86.0 billion in June after a small revision to a deficit of $96.4 billion in May. The June deficit is above the consensus of a deficit of $99.0 billion in the Econoday survey of forecasters.
Exports of goods are down 0.6 percent in June from May, mainly from a 8.1 percent decrease in exports of industrial supplies, while most other categories had an increase.
Imports of goods are down 4.2 percent in June from May. There is an increase of 0.6 percent in capital goods. However, all other categories had a decline. In particular, imports of consumer goods is down 12.4 percent.
Market Consensus Before Announcement
Forecasters see the deficit at $99.0 billion in May as imports are down from elevated levels in Q1 that reflected tariff-front-running.
Definition
This monthly report offers advance import and export data on the goods components of the monthly trade report. Goods make up roughly two-thirds of the nation's exports and roughly three-quarters of imports.
Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in cross-border ownership.
Note that data in the advance goods report are accounted for on a census basis and can differ slightly from subsequent data in the international trade report where goods data are accounted for on a balance of payment basis to adjust for changes in cross-border ownership.
Description
Changes in the levels of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance), are valuable gauges of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the dollar in the foreign exchange market.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods here in the United States. Exports show foreign demand for U.S. goods. The dollar can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United States, since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies.
Market reaction to this report is complex. Typically, the smaller the trade deficit, the more bullish it is for the dollar. Also, stronger exports are bullish for corporate earnings and the stock market. Like most economic indicators, the trade balance is subject to substantial monthly variability, especially when oil prices change.
It is also useful to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately because they can deviate significantly. Trends in export activity reflect both the competitive position of American industry and the strength of domestic and foreign economic activity. U.S. exports will grow when: 1) U.S. product prices are lower than foreign product prices; 2) the value of the dollar is relatively weaker than that of foreign currencies; 3) foreign economies are growing rapidly.
Imports will increase when: 1) foreign product prices are lower than prices of domestically-produced goods; 2) the value of the dollar is stronger than that of other currencies; 3) domestic demand for goods and services is robust.
Imports indicate demand for foreign goods here in the United States. Exports show foreign demand for U.S. goods. The dollar can be particularly sensitive to changes in the chronic trade deficit run by the United States, since this trade imbalance creates greater demand for foreign currencies.
Market reaction to this report is complex. Typically, the smaller the trade deficit, the more bullish it is for the dollar. Also, stronger exports are bullish for corporate earnings and the stock market. Like most economic indicators, the trade balance is subject to substantial monthly variability, especially when oil prices change.
It is also useful to examine the trend growth rates for exports and imports separately because they can deviate significantly. Trends in export activity reflect both the competitive position of American industry and the strength of domestic and foreign economic activity. U.S. exports will grow when: 1) U.S. product prices are lower than foreign product prices; 2) the value of the dollar is relatively weaker than that of foreign currencies; 3) foreign economies are growing rapidly.
Imports will increase when: 1) foreign product prices are lower than prices of domestically-produced goods; 2) the value of the dollar is stronger than that of other currencies; 3) domestic demand for goods and services is robust.
