Import prices show a modest 0.1 percent rise in June from May, close to the 0.2 percent consensus forecast. Export prices are up 0.5 percent, topping the expected minus 0.1 percent figure.

On year, import prices are down 0.2 percent in June from a year ago, the same annual decline recorded in May. These are the largest annual decreases since a decline of 0.9 percent in February 2024.

Excluding fuel prices, which fell 0.7 percent on the month, import prices rose 0.1 percent in June from May. Nonfuel import prices are up 1.2 percent for the year ended in June.

Export prices are up 2.8 percent in June from a year ago, the largest over-the-
year rise since they showed the same 2.8 percent increase for the year ended January 2025.

The consensus sees import prices up 0.2 percent and export prices down 0.1 percent on the month.

Import price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods that are bought in the United States but produced abroad and export price indexes are compiled for the prices of goods sold abroad but produced domestically. These prices, which exclude tariffs and taxes, measure underlying inflationary trends in internationally traded products.

Changes in import and export prices are a valuable gauge of inflation here and abroad. Furthermore, the data can directly impact the financial markets such as bonds and the dollar. The bond market is especially sensitive to the risk of importing inflation because it erodes the value of the principal (the original investment) which is paid back when the bond matures. It also decreases the value of the steady stream of interest rate payments on this type of security. Inflation leads to higher interest rates and that's bad news for stocks, as well. By monitoring inflation gauges such as import prices, investors can keep an eye on this menace to their portfolios.