The FOMC left the fed funds target rate range unchanged at 4.25 to 4.50 percent, as expected. There are only minor tweaks to the statement compared to that issued at the prior meeting. The statement noted the continuing impact that the unusual movements in international trade have had on the GDP data and offered a slightly less upbeat assessment of economic activity. There was no change in the language regarding the labor market and inflation. The statement said, Although swings in net exports continue to affect the data, recent indicators suggest that growth of economic activity moderated in the first half of the year. The unemployment rate remains low, and labor market conditions remain solid. Inflation remains somewhat elevated.

The statement also said, Uncertainty about the economic outlook remains elevated. The language about diminished uncertainty in the prior statement was removed.

The vote at the end of the meeting included two dissents from Governors Michelle Bowmand and Christopher Waller who both preferred a 25 basis point cut in the fed funds rate. It is unusual for a governor to dissent, and two governors have not dissented in a meeting vote since the 1990's. The vote was 9-2 with Governor Adriana Kugler absent and not voting.

No action expected as the FOMC majority waits for more clarity on tariff effects. Seems likely that Governors Waller and Bowman will dissent in favor of a 25 bp cut.

The FOMC meeting announcement is a policy statement issued at the conclusion of each meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. It offers updates on economic conditions with special focus on the health of the labor market and the latest on inflation. It also updates the status of the federal funds target which is the FOMC's official policy interest rate. This rate is expressed within a range, such as 1.75 to 2.00 percent. The center of this range is the implied target. The higher this target, the more restrictive monetary policy becomes, the lower this target, the more accommodative policy becomes. Other policy tools are also discussed in the meeting announcement including updates on direct purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities. Debate is not offered in the statement, just the consensus view is expressed, though the statement does list the total committee vote and how each member voted.

The Fed determines interest rate policy at FOMC meetings. These occur roughly every six weeks and are the single most influential event for the markets. For weeks in advance, market participants speculate about the possibility of an interest rate change at these meetings. If the outcome is different from expectations, the impact on the markets can be dramatic and far-reaching.

The interest rate set by the Fed, the federal funds rate, serves as a benchmark for all other rates. A change in the fed funds rate, the lending rate banks charge each other for the use of overnight funds, translates directly through to all other interest rates from Treasury bonds to mortgage loans. It also changes the dynamics of competition for investor dollars. When bonds yield 5 percent, they will attract more money away from stocks than when they only yield 3 percent.

The level of interest rates affects the economy. Higher interest rates tend to slow economic activity; lower interest rates stimulate economic activity. Either way, interest rates influence the sales environment. In the consumer sector, fewer homes or cars will be purchased when interest rates rise. Furthermore, interest rate costs are a significant factor for many businesses, particularly for companies with high debt loads or who have to finance high inventory levels. This interest cost has a direct impact on corporate profits. The bottom line is that higher interest rates are bearish for the stock market, while lower interest rates are bullish.

The Fed also began quantitative easing during the past recession and, through direct purchases in the market, steadily increased its holdings of Treasuries and mortgage-back securities before pulling back from the program beginning in late 2017. Along with lowering its bond holdings, the Fed began to gradually raise its federal funds target until mid-2019 when, facing slowing global growth, it began to lower its target.

Frequency
Eight times a year.