| Actual | Previous | Revised | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Orders Balance | -33.0% | -30.0% | -30.0% |
Highlights
UK manufacturing continued to struggle in the second quarter of 2025, with output volumes falling sharply for the third consecutive month, according to the CBI's latest industrial trends survey. The weighted balance stood at minus 23 percent, only a slight improvement from minus 25 percent in May, reflecting a sustained downturn across key sub-sectors including chemicals, metal products, and mechanical engineering.
Despite this contraction, there are faint signs of stabilisation ahead. Manufacturers expect the pace of decline to ease notably by September, suggesting cautious optimism amidst the gloom. However, demand conditions remain weak. Total and export order books are well below long-term norms, with balances at minus 33 percent and minus 26 percent, respectively, reflecting continued external and domestic pressures.
Selling price expectations have cooled somewhat (19 percent, down from 26 percent), yet inflationary pressures remain well above historical averages. Meanwhile, finished goods stock levels, though still deemed more than adequate, have fallen slightly below trend, hinting at adjustments in inventory in response to falling demand.
In essence, the sector remains subdued but not without hope. Slowing decline and eased price pressures offer some breathing room, though weak orders and output suggest gradual and uneven recovery.
Despite this contraction, there are faint signs of stabilisation ahead. Manufacturers expect the pace of decline to ease notably by September, suggesting cautious optimism amidst the gloom. However, demand conditions remain weak. Total and export order books are well below long-term norms, with balances at minus 33 percent and minus 26 percent, respectively, reflecting continued external and domestic pressures.
Selling price expectations have cooled somewhat (19 percent, down from 26 percent), yet inflationary pressures remain well above historical averages. Meanwhile, finished goods stock levels, though still deemed more than adequate, have fallen slightly below trend, hinting at adjustments in inventory in response to falling demand.
In essence, the sector remains subdued but not without hope. Slowing decline and eased price pressures offer some breathing room, though weak orders and output suggest gradual and uneven recovery.
Definition
The Confederation of British Industry (CBI) produces a monthly survey (and a more detailed quarterly report) analysing the performance of UK manufacturing industry. This is the UK's longest running qualitative business tendency survey. Questions relate to domestic and export orders, stocks, price and output expectations with the main market focus being the domestic orders balance. The survey is seen as a loose leading indicator of the official industrial production data.
Description
Started in 1958, this is the UK's longest-running private sector qualitative business tendency survey. The survey is used by policy makers along with those in the business community, academics and top analysts in financial markets. One of its key strengths is that it is released within ten days and prior to official statistics and includes data not covered by official sources. It is never revised. The data are also used by the European Commission's harmonized business survey of EU countries.
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
Frequency
Monthly and quarterly
