In June 2025, economic sentiment across the euro area continued to decline, with the economic sentiment indicator (ESI) falling to 94.0. This decline reflects growing unease in the industrial and retail trade sectors, where reduced order books and muted production expectations signalled subdued outlooks. However, construction bucked the trend with rising confidence, driven by stronger employment expectations despite ongoing challenges, such as labour shortages and financial constraints.

The employment expectations indicator (EEI) remained broadly unchanged, masking sector-specific variations, declines in industry and retail were offset by optimism in services and construction. Consumer sentiment held steady, although households expressed growing concern about their financial situations and curtailed major spending plans.

Selling price expectations eased across most sectors, suggesting softening inflationary pressures, while the economic uncertainty indicator (EUI) declined to 16.4, indicating reduced business and consumer apprehension. Across key EU economies, sentiment fell sharply in France (89.6 after 93.0), Germany (90.7 after 91.5), and Spain (102.0 after 103.4), while Italy (98.9 after 98.7) showed a slight improvement.

Overall, the report reflects a cautious but uneven economic landscape, underpinned by industrial fragility and hesitant consumers, but supported in part by construction resilience and a broader sense of reduced uncertainty. These latest updates take the RPI to minus 18 and the RPI-P to minus 21, meaning that economic activities are now well behind the expectations of the euro area.

Economic sentiment expected to tick up to. 95.5 in June from 94.8 in May. Industry sentiment also expected better at minus 9.6 versus minus 10.3 in May.

Released by the European Commission, the economic sentiment index (ESI) provides a broad measure of both business and consumer sentiment. Results are available for all participating countries and aggregated to the Eurozone and European Union level. The survey is very detailed and offers information on demand, output and inflation.

The survey offers key sentiment data across the European Union and the Eurozone region. Data are available for each country and are aggregated for both the Eurozone and EU. It is conducted by the European Commission rather than Eurostat, the compiler of most other EMU data. The index is a broad measure of both business and consumer sentiment in the EU members. Because of its coverage of all the EU countries it is highly regarded in the financial markets as a good indicator of the mood of consumers and industry in each country. It is also normally a good indicator of quarterly GDP.

Confidence indicators are calculated for industry, services, construction, retail trade and consumers. In turn, they are combined into an overall composite number, the economic sentiment indicator (ESI). The data are seasonally adjusted and defined as the difference (in percentage points of total answers) between positive and negative answers. The survey also covers other areas of the economy that are not explicitly included in the ESI. In particular, responses to questions about the inflation outlook are used by the ECB as one means of measuring inflationary expectations.