In April 2025, the euro area's trade performance revealed a continuous surplus in trade within the bloc. A €14.4 billion surplus was recorded in trade in goods with the rest of the world, which marked a sharp decline from €28.8 billion in March, mainly due to a halving of the chemicals trade surplus from €42.8 billion to €22.1 billion. Seasonally adjusted exports dropped by 8.2 percent to €244.6 billion, reflecting a significant pullback in external demand, while imports decreased by 3.0 percent, suggesting a mild softening in domestic consumption.

Year-over-year, the trade balance fell modestly by €3.7 billion. The machineries & vehicles sector posted a notable surplus reduction, down from €16.8 billion to €12.8 billion, pointing to ongoing weakness in key industrial exports. On the upside, the energy deficit narrowed slightly, improving by €0.5 billion, a slight relief amid broader trade headwinds.

Despite April's trade surplus, the steep monthly drop signals growing external pressures that could weigh on industrial output and economic growth in the months ahead. This latest update takes the RPI to 2 and the RPI-P to 17, meaning that economic activities are ahead of the expectations within the euro area.

The merchandise trade balance measures the difference between imports and exports of goods. The level of the international trade balance, as well as changes in exports and imports, indicate trends in foreign trade. For the Eurozone, monthly data are available for trade in goods; statistics on services are released as part of the overall quarterly current account report. The headline trade data are not adjusted for seasonal factors and so should only be viewed in relation to the outturn a year ago. However, seasonally adjusted figures available elsewhere in the report do allow for monthly comparisons.

Changes in the level of imports and exports, along with the difference between the two (the trade balance) are a valuable gauge of economic trends here and abroad. While these trade figures can directly impact all financial markets, they primarily affect the value of the local currency dollar in the foreign exchange market.

Imports indicate demand for foreign goods and services. Exports show the demand for Eurozone goods in countries overseas. The euro can be particularly sensitive to changes in the balance since a trade deficit/surplus can create greater/reduced demand for foreign currencies. The bond market is also sensitive to the risk of importing inflation. This report gives a breakdown of EMU trade with major countries as well, so it can be instructive for investors who are interested in diversifying globally. For example, a trend of accelerating exports to a particular country might signal economic strength and investment opportunities in that country.