SOYBEANS:
June Planting Intentions report has soybean acres at 83.38 million acres, versus the average of 83.5 million (range: 82-85 million). The March Intentions estimate was 83.5 million. Quarterly Grain Stocks reported June 1 soybean stocks at 1.008 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 974 million bushels and a range of expectations from 936 million to 1.022 billion. June 1 stocks last year were 970 million. On-farm stocks were 411.7 million bushels, down from 466 a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 595.96 million bushels, up from 504.05 a year ago.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Slightly lower acreage number than expected but a higher stocks number, resulting in a mixed report. The post-report price reaction has been a bit negative as the higher stocks number will increase ending stocks and the acreage number was not down enough to offset. Since the numbers do not offer the market any clear direction, today's end-of-day price reaction to the numbers may be the most important factor. The soy complex was leaning very heavily bearish heading into the report, but over the last couple of sessions, that pressure has been somewhat relieved, resulting in reduced short-covering potential. November prices have so far been unable to rally to retracement resistance in the 1044 ? 1051 range, but that area will likely cap rallies for the near-term unless the current favorable weather forecast changes.?


CORN:
June Planting Intentions report has corn acres at 95.203 million acres, versus the average of 95.4 million (range: 93.8-96.8 million). The March Intentions estimate was 95.3 million. Quarterly Grain Stocks reported June 1 corn stocks at 4.644 billion bushels versus an average expectation of 4.625 billion bushels and a range of expectations from 4.459-4.798 billion. June 1 stocks last year were 4.997 billion. March 1 stocks were 8.147 billion bushels. On-farm stocks were 2.556 billion bushels, down 15.5% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 2.088 billion bushels, up 5.9% from a year ago.

PRICE OUTLOOK: Corn acres declined slightly when most were expecting a slight increase, and stocks numbers came in right on the pre-report guesses, resulting in an essentially neutral report. Stocks in commercial hands were higher, while farmer stocks were significantly down from a year ago. This indicates that farmers have done a good job clearing old crop corn out of the bins from last year's harvest. The price reaction to the report has been very subdued, and prices are modestly lower. The lower acreage is not enough to change the balance sheet much and traders are likely to move back to watching weather and exports for direction. Despite some hints that the 2nd half of July could be warmer and drier across the Midwest, confidence is low that far out, and pollination in the meantime through midmonth looks to be good, which will keep rallies in check.


WHEAT:
The June Planting Intentions report has all wheat acres at 45.478 million acres, compared to the average of 45.4 million (range: 44.5-46.1 million). The March Intentions estimate was 45.4 million. Spring wheat acres came in at 10.045 million versus the average estimate of 10 million. March Intentions were 10.02 million acres. Durum wheat acres came in at 2.108 million versus the average estimate of 2 million. March Intentions were 2.015 million acres. Quarterly Grain Stocks reported June 1 wheat stocks at 851 million bushels versus an average expectation of 836 million bushels and a range of expectations from 805-852 million. June 1 stocks last year were 696 million. March 1 stocks were 1.237 billion bushels. On-farm stocks were 184 million bushels, up 32.4% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks totaled 667 million bushels, up 19.6% from a year ago.

PRICE OUTLOOK: The acreage numbers did not deviate significantly from the pre-report estimates, but quarterly stocks were higher than expected and near the top end of the range of guesses, which gives the report a slight bearish feel. Farmer held stocks are up significantly from a year ago as are off-farm stocks. This tends to confirm the USDA's much larger ending stocks than last season. The post-report market reaction has been minimal, and prices are slightly lower. The disappointing short-covering bounce over the last two sessions suggests that the downside action may not be over. The report did not offer anything for the bulls, and the bear camp is likely to remain in control in the near term.

This full-text report, issued four times yearly, contains stocks of all wheat, durum wheat, corn, sorghum, oats, barley, soybeans, flaxseed, canola, rapeseed, rye, sunflower, safflower, mustard seed, by States and U.S. and by position (on-farm or off-farm storage); includes number and capacity of off-farm storage facilities and capacity of on-farm storage facilities. The data is obtained via an off and on-farm stocks survey, the on-farm survey is a probability survey of farm operators, the off-farm stocks survey is enumerates the volume of grain in all known commercial grain storage facilities.

Unlike the WASDE and other USDA reports, this report measures actual (counted) supply, not estimates or forecasts. It helps verify or correct the estimates in other the USDA reports, such as WASDE.

September is the most closely watched of the four quarterly reports, as it measures stock levels at the end of the marketing year for corn and soybeans. This number should equal the ending stocks number in the monthly Supply/Demand (WASDE) reports. If the September Grain Stocks number is different from the recent WASDE report, the next WASDE report will show an adjustment in supply and demand data to bring the numbers in line with each other. For example, if the WASDE reports have been calling for corn ending stocks to come in at 2.000 billion bushels and the September Grain Stocks report shows September 1 corn stocks at 1.892 billion, it would mean that actual supplies are smaller than projected. This would be a bullish surprise for the market, and we would expect the upcoming October WASDE report to reflect the new estimate.

The January, March and June stocks can also inform the rate of demand as the marketing year progresses.

The marketing year for wheat ends on May 31, and as such, the June Grain Stocks report is the most important for the wheat market.