Chair Jerome Powell stressed that the most recent decision by the FOMC to leave rates unchanged is taken at a time of elevated uncertainty. The same was said of the quarterly update to the summary of economic projections (SEP).

He said the US economy continues to exhibit resilience, and the current economic data is consistent with growth, a solid labor market, somewhat elevated inflation, and inflation expectations well anchored for the longer term.

Although the cooling in the labor market and inflation measures within reach of the Fed's percent inflation objective, Powell said that monetary policy has to be forward looking. At the moment, there are big unknowns about the size and timing of tariff policies that will directly affect prices somewhere along the supply chain.

Powell said that the tariffs will have to be paid, whether that is by manufacturers, distributors, or consumers. The result will be higher prices in the coming months and will likely start to become visible this summer. Unknown is if the higher prices will be a short-term reset to a higher level, or if a new inflationary episode could develop. He said the Fed has an obligation to restore and maintain price stability and will act to do so. However, he said, We have a lot to learn before adjusting rates.

Powell said that the Fed's monetary policy is well positioned to respond based on the incoming economic data.

The quarterly update to the SEP is made against a background of high uncertainty. Powell said policymakers had to be humble in setting their forecasts and ready to adapt as incoming data changes the picture of the economy. He suggested that the forecasts for 2025 are more significant and that the ones for 2026 and 2027 should be treated with caution as events develop. Powell noting the FOMC is adapting to real time. He said, uncertainty really peaked in April and has since come down, but is still elevated. The ultimate scope of changes in tariff policy have yet to be seen, and the impact of the escalating conflicts in the Middle East would take time to become clearer.

The Fed announced in 2011 that then Fed Chair Ben Bernanke would hold press briefings four times a year to explain the FOMC's latest quarterly economic projections. The purpose of the briefings is to provide additional context for the FOMC's policy decisions and to allow for questions-and-answers with the press. According to the Fed, the"introduction of regular press briefings is intended to further enhance the clarity and timeliness of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy communication." The press briefing is held at 2:30 p.m. ET on the days of FOMC statements in which quarterly projections are released. Beginning in 2019, the briefing will be held after each FOMC meeting. The policy statement is released at 2:00 p.m. ET after the conclusion of every FOMC meeting regardless of whether there are forecasts or not.

The Fed’s meeting statement and economic projections can move financial markets. However, the Fed’s meeting statement — which indicates any changes in monetary policy—typically is very concise and lacking in detail. However, the Fed now releases its economic forecasts four times a year. As of March 20, 2013, the forecasts are released at the same time as the FOMC statement during the months of March, June, September, and December. After each of the 8 Fed meetings, the chair holds a press conference to explain the forecasts and other policy issues. The chair’s press conference allows for the financial markets and public in general to learn more about why and how the monetary policy decision was made and to learn more about FOMC views on the direction of the economy—including real growth, inflation, unemployment, expected timing of changes in the fed funds rate, and expected levels of the fed funds rate in the near term.